Weighted WAR: Pitching, DH, and First Base Rankings

So far in the weighted WAR series, we’ve discussed the weighting system, schedule length adjustments, positional classification, timelining (in two parts), negative seasons, and most recently how all of those adjustments apply to the Negro Leagues. With all that in mind, it’s time to cover the two positions for which I haven’t compiled WAR-based top 100 lists: DH and pitcher.

The reason I don’t have a top-100 list at DH is simple. The role has existed for barely 50 years, compared to the 150-year history of professional baseball, and for most of that time it has only been used in one of the two major leagues. Beyond that, DH often serves as a time-sharing spot, used to provide brief rests to star hitters at other positions rather than being home to a full time player. As such, I can’t make a list of the top 100 players classified at DH because there aren’t 100 of them in my database, or even 50. Through the end of 2024, there are 29 players who have had at least one schedule-adjusted 3-WAR season and are listed as DHs.

So, what do you do with them? One option is to ignore DH as an option when classifying the players and simply select the fielding position at which the player spends the most time. I find that unsatisfying, because the point of positional classification is to compare players who are similar, and David Ortiz (who would be listed at first base) is more similar to Edgar Martinez (who would classify at third) than he is to Keith Hernandez. Another option is just to release the DH list as-is, but that’s not especially pleasant either, because it leads to grossly uneven comparisons. The #24 all-time shortstop is Carlos Correa, with around 45 WAR entering 2025; the #24 DH is Erubiel Durazo, who has less than 10 WAR.

The solution I’ve settled on is to mix DH with first base – not to combine the lists (and therefore take away a dozen or so top-100 spots from actual first basemen), but to simply add the DHs to the first base list in the gaps where they fit, thereby giving a reasonable idea where they would land at a position with a fuller history. Chili Davis and his 29.5 weighted WAR slide in between early MLB stars Joe Start (30.0) and Harry Stovey (29.0); Start remains #52 and Stovey #53 at first base, and you can consider Davis #52.5.

Since we’re talking about DH, let’s throw in the table of active players at that position, with both DH-only and first base mixed rankings presented (rank changes are for the 1B rankings):

Player	DH Rnk	1B Rnk	Years	WAR	aWAR	wWAR	2024 WAR	Rank Chng
JD Martinez	7	58.5	2011-24	30.3	32.8	28.0	0.5	-1
Marcell Ozuna	9	60.5	2013-24	27.8	31.8	27.0	4.3	Pos Chg
Shohei Ohtani	10	63.5	2018-24	28.7	28.7	26.2	9.2	+54
Yordan Alvarez	14	93.5	2019-24	23.7	23.8	21.9	5.4	+31

Yes, that is all of them – four in the mixed top 100, with nobody else even within shouting distance.

Also yes, we are officially begging the question at this point. Shohei Ohtani ended 2024 with roughly 43.8 career bWAR; why am I listing him at 28.7? Let’s talk about pitching value – and specifically why I’m not counting it here.

To be clear up front: Yes, Ohtani is amazing; yes, he absolutely deserves credit for his pitching value. The issue is a systematic one. If I analyze Ohtani’s pitching, it seems necessary to analyze the pitching of every other pitcher/hitter hybrid as well, and that has a bigger effect than might be expected.

For starters, early professional players would often both pitch and play outfield, especially in the days before substitutions were allowed; your right fielder would frequently be your relief pitching option in a given game. Mid-career changes from pitcher to hitter were also seen in some cases, most notably in the person of John Montgomery Ward. Ward came up as a pitcher in the late 1870s and posted 28 WAR on the mound (per B-R), then moved to shortstop and added another 34. Analyzed as a shortstop only, he falls just outside the top 100 (#107); his pitching value would help him out quite a bit.

How much? Ward’s three best seasons as a pitcher are his first three, 1878-80. Per B-R, these seasons were worth 4.6, 7.3, and 6.7 WAR; those would be Ward’s fourth, first, and second-ranked seasons (improving a bit more when you add his hitting WAR for these years). His peak jumps nicely there. There are of course the usual adjustments to consider… except that the timelining adjustment is based on plate appearances as a hitter, a number that is less than 15% of his batters faced as a pitcher (as you’d expect). And then you look at the schedule length adjustment; Ward’s 1878 Providence Grays played 62 games (Ward-the-pitcher started and completed 37 of them), so his WAR value for the season more than doubles. 1879 and 1880 (60 and 67 pitching starts for Ward, respectively) both go up by a factor of between 1.6 and 1.7, comfortably clearing 10 WAR even with the muted timeline adjustment. Ward’s peak starts to look outlandish at this point; he would probably score as a top-10 shortstop.

It's not just Ward, either. Bob Caruthers played a lot of outfield, sometimes more than he pitched. Guy Hecker had multiple seasons with more time at first base than on the mound. Without their pitching value, the system doesn’t think they’re anything special – but with it, given the prodigious workloads of the 1800s starters? Look out.

All right, but those guys are ancient history; nobody has done it since Babe Ruth… or so we’re constantly told when Ohtani is being (justifiably) hyped for his uniqueness. It is correct to note that MLB has had no pitcher/hitter hybrids since Ruth, but the same is not true for the Negro Leagues, which give you Martin Dihigo and Bullet Rogan to contend with, among others. And NeL seasons have just as many schedule length adjustments working on them as the 1800s do (although the pitchers’ workloads have at least recessed to comparatively sane levels).

All of this is conceivably solvable, though. I could figure out how much timelining feels appropriate for pitcher WAR; I could somehow compensate for the absurd innings totals from 150 years ago. The question still remains: which form of WAR to use? This is a thorny question for pitchers, because unlike the batting and fielding components of different WAR systems (which may differ in outcome but are generally trying to accomplish the same thing), pitching WAR varies philosophically from system to system. To hugely simplify a complicated topic, Baseball Reference WAR starts from pitcher runs allowed and makes a blanket adjustment for the general quality of the team’s fielders. Fangraphs WAR uses fielding independent numbers (strikeouts, walks and home runs) to measure a pitcher’s entire contribution and assumes any variance outside of that is attributable to the team’s fielders. And RA9 WAR (also presented by Fangraphs these days, and used in other sources as well, including Seamheads for NeL stats) takes the pitcher’s park adjusted runs allowed and ignores any fielding effects entirely.

I don’t particularly like any of the freely available WAR systems for pitchers; I think they all simplify the pitcher-fielder dynamic too much and produce extreme outcomes as a result. As such, both because of the extra work that would be involved and a lack of faith in a reasonable outcome, I’m not considering pitching value as part of this project. Again, this is by no means intended to imply that pitching value shouldn’t count; I may circle back to this topic in the future. But for now, we’re considering Ohtani as a DH only. And frankly, if he keeps hitting anything like he did last year, that’s barely going to put a dent in his standing by the time he’s done.

On to the tables for the position we ARE examining this time around. Active first basemen as of 2024 who are among the top 100 all time, or close enough to join with a very good season (not including DHs since we discussed them already):

Player	Rank	Years	WAR	aWAR	wWAR	2024 WAR	Rank Change
Paul Goldschmidt	13	2011-24	63.0	65.5	50.3	1.3	0
Freddie Freeman	17	2010-24	60.8	64.9	48.3	4.7	+3
Anthony Rizzo	40	2011-24	39.8	41.5	33.6	0.2	0
Jose Abreu	51	2014-24	30.3	35.5	30.0	-1.7	0
Carlos Santana	53	2010-24	38.0	39.3	29.8	2.5	+2
Matt Olson	54	2016-24	32.7	34.2	29.6	3.8	+6
Max Muncy	97	2015-24	22.9	24.0	21.3	3.0	+10
Vladimir Guerrero Jr	104	2019-24	21.6	22.3	20.6
Pete Alonso	114	2019-24	20.0	20.2	18.5
Christian Walker	143	2014-24	15.1	16.5	15.2
Yandy Diaz	149	2017-24	14.8	16.0	14.5

This list looked a lot different a year ago; the top two active first basemen as of 2023 were Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto, and Brandon Belt was also in the bottom half of the top 100. A few of the other players listed here look to be on the way out soon as well, but Freeman is still a star (he may well pass Goldschmidt for the active lead next year), and Vlad Jr. made a ton of progress this year.

On that note, here are the top 25 first basemen of all time by weighted WAR (plus the DHs who score well enough to squeeze in), as well as numbers 30-100 by 10’s:

Player	Rank	Years	WAR	aWAR	wWAR
Lou Gehrig	1	1923-39	113.9	107.5	78.1
Albert Pujols	2	2001-22	101.5	104.1	73.4
Jimmie Foxx	3	1925-45	92.1	86.7	64.1
Jeff Bagwell	4	1991-2005	79.8	82.3	60.2
Cap Anson	5	1871-97	94.6	104.5	59.5
Roger Connor	6	1880-97	84.4	82.6	58.0
Dan Brouthers	7	1879-1904	79.9	79.7	58.0
Frank Thomas	8	1990-2008	73.9	75.9	54.8
Miguel Cabrera	9	2003-23	67.2	70.3	52.4
Edgar Martinez	9.5	1987-2004	68.4	70.1	51.9
Jim Thome	10	1991-2012	73.1	74.2	51.2
Johnny Mize	11	1936-53	70.7	65.9	50.6
Joey Votto	12	2007-23	64.6	64.8	50.4
Paul Goldschmidt	13	2011-24	63.0	65.5	50.3
Paul Molitor	13.5	1978-98	75.6	76.9	50.3
Rafael Palmeiro	14	1986-2005	71.8	73.1	49.6
Eddie Murray	15	1977-97	68.7	71.5	49.3
Todd Helton	16	1997-2013	61.8	61.7	48.9
Freddie Freeman	17	2010-24	60.8	64.9	48.3
Willie McCovey	18	1959-80	64.7	64.9	48.0
Keith Hernandez	19	1974-90	60.4	62.8	47.7
Mark McGwire	20	1986-2001	62.0	62.8	47.4
Buck Leonard	21	1935-48	31.6	60.1	45.1
John Olerud	22	1989-2005	58.1	58.7	43.8
Harmon Killebrew	23	1954-75	60.8	59.4	43.4
Will Clark	24	1986-2000	56.5	57.4	42.9
Jason Giambi	25	1995-2014	50.7	52.2	42.6
Fred McGriff	30	1986-2004	52.5	54.2	41.1
Anthony Rizzo	40	2011-24	29.8	41.5	33.6
Kent Hrbek	50	1981-94	38.5	38.5	30.2
Joe Judge	60	1915-34	47.8	38.0	27.2
Earl Torgeson	70	1947-61	33.3	31.1	25.0
Harry Davis	80	1895-1917	38.3	29.0	23.7
Jason Thompson	90	1976-86	25.0	25.6	22.1
Mike Sweeney	100	1995-2010	24.9	24.9	21.2

Couple of timelining notes – I kind of like the fact that Gehrig finishes ahead of Pujols, complemented by A-Rod being ahead of Wagner at shortstop. Those are probably the two most-contested top spots and are especially dependent on how you handle old vs. new; the split decision is pleasantly neutral.

Also, the Anson-Brouthers-Connor trio from the 1800s sticks together very nicely; not only are they back-to-back-to-back in the first base rankings, they all land between 34 and 37 in the overall rankings, separated only by #35 Josh Gibson. (Anson, I assume, would hate that.) As a bonus note, Anson’s weighted WAR is just below 57% of his total adjusted WAR. My database includes over 2400 players, and Anson’s ratio of wWAR to aWAR is the single lowest one included. Not coincidentally, Anson has the most spread out productive career of any position player ever; he played 27 seasons and has positive WAR (even with timeline adjustments) in all of them, and at least 1.4 adjusted WAR in 26 of the 27.

If you’re curious, David Ortiz is the #3 DH and would stand at #31.5 here, between Bill Terry and Tony Perez. His score (40.7) would make the top 25 at most other positions; first base is just loaded with great-but-not-inner-circle players.

We’re now at the point where the weighted WAR system has been completely introduced, but we have one position left to cover in the rankings. Next time, we’ll finish off this series in right field, while also touching on a variety of factors that could reasonably be added to an all-time rating system, but are not included in weighted WAR.