2010 Tennis Rankings: The top 10

With the last post having been the listing of the second ten from the 2010 tennis season, one might assume that the next one would be the top 10... and one would be right.

Number 10: Fernando Verdasco, Spain (8.4)

Match record 43-22; Set record 103-73; Service game record 926-808 (.534). ATP rank: 9.

Draw: Fernando’s foes provide a .465 W%75, the tenth-toughest schedule in the world. He faced eight top-10 foes (plus 3 matches against Ferrer, who wasn’t in the top 10 when they were played but would end the year there), and 10 opponents listed outside the top 100.

Troubles: Verdasco lost his first match in six different events, including Wimbledon and a pair of Masters. And that’s really about it as far as legitimate trouble spots go.

Highlights: The Spaniard won titles in San Jose and Barcelona, beating Roddick in one final and Soderling in the other; he’s the only player not named Nadal to win Barcelona since 2005. He made the finals at the Monte Carlo Masters and the semis at the Rome Masters, upsetting Djokovic in both events. He also made fourth-round runs at the Australian and French Opens, and a quarterfinal at the US.

Two titles, a Masters final and another semi, a Grand Slam quarter and a pair of fourth rounds. It’s a well-rounded season for a solid, impressive player who deservedly hung onto his position in the top 10 for another year.

Number 9: Stanlislas Wawrinka, Switzerland (9.7)

Match record 41-18; Set record 98-54; Service game record 806-665 (.548). ATP rank: 21.

Draw: Wawrina faced a schedule that grades out at a .466 W%75, the twelfth-most difficult on the tour. This is dragged down by the fact that he played the Lugano Challenger event (and won it fairly easily); I suspect that without those five matches, it would be in the top ten. Speaking of the top ten, Wawrinka played ten matches against them, including Nadal and Federer three times each (the others were Soderling twice and Djokovic and Murray once each). That compares to eleven matches outside the top 100, three of which came during the aforementioned sojourn to Lugano.

Troubles: You mean apart from the six matches against historically great players? Wawrinka lost in the first round at Wimbledon, and only made it as far as the quarters in one Masters event. In this company, his one title and one other final are also relatively small potatoes.

Highlights: A title at Casablanca, and a final at Chennai. Wawrinka also won at least one match in all but two of the events he played, which seems like an odd highlight but is worth pointing out. He upset Soderling to make the quarterfinals at the Rome Masters, where Nadal beat him. He made the fourth round at the French Open (losing to Federer) and the quarters at the US (losing to Youzhny).

Wawrinka’s year doesn’t jump out at you with obvious feats; that’s why the ATP listed him in the 21 spot. But he spent all year beating the players he was supposed to beat: he had only 5 losses to players outside the top 20, and among those 5 were a loss to John Isner (ranked #21 at the time) and one to David Nalbandian (ranked #117, but on his way to the Washington title and listed as the #11 player of 2010 in the last post). Winning the matches you should win is how you get into matchups against the best players in the world, and if you get into enough of them (and are a very good player in your own right), you might just upset Andy Murray in the third round of the US Open – which, naturally, Wawrinka did in 2010. Combine that with a victory over Soderling in Rome (by a decisive 6-3, 6-2) and you get enough to impress Melog pretty thoroughly.

Number 8: Andy Roddick, USA (11.4)

Match record 48-18; Set record 116-55; Service game record 964-794 (.548). ATP rank: 8.

Draw: Roddick stared down a .467 W%75, the thirteenth-toughest set of opponents seen in 2010. He took on nine top-10 players and ten outside the top 100.

Troubles: This was the year when Roddick stopped seriously threatening in the Slams – he lost in the third round at the French Open, the fourth at Wimbledon, and the second at the US Open. He also missed the entire clay court season until the French, a span of two months. (This may have been voluntary; it’s not clear from his playing record.) Finally, Roddick went 0-3 at the World Tour Finals to close out the year.

Highlights: The first three months of Roddick’s year were GREAT. He won Brisbane, made the quarters of the Australian Open, made the final at San Jose, and then dominated the pair of 96-man Masters events in March, making the final at Indian Wells and winning Miami (complete with a victory over Nadal). Later in the season, he also made the semis at the Cincinnati Masters and the quarters in the Paris Masters.

Roddick is often looked at for what he wasn’t, rather than for what he was. He was one of the ten best players in the world in 2010, and achieved that status on the strength of some very deep runs at very big events. Slam struggles or no, that still strikes me as a successful season.

Number 7: Tomas Berdych, Czech Republic (14.8)

Match record 42-26; Set record 112-71; Service game record 978-796 (.551). ATP rank: 6.

Draw: Berdych faced off with a .458 W%75 schedule, the sixth-toughest in the world and the toughest seen so far this year. It includes a remarkable 16 matches against top-10 competition, as compared to 10 outside the top 100.

Troubles: Brace yourself for a shock – Berdych did not win a title in 2010. He also absorbed 7 losses in first- or second-round play, with the most damaging among them coming in the first round of the US Open and the second round of the Australian.

Highlights: In the other two Slams, however, Berdych made the French Open semifinals (with wins over Isner, Murray, and Youzhny leading up to his loss to Soderling), then took it a step further and advanced to the final at Wimbledon (beating Federer and Djokovic before losing to Nadal). He also made it to at least the round of 16 in seven different Masters events, with the most notable being a run to the Miami final that included wins over Federer, Verdasco, and Soderling. Those 16 matches against top-10 competition included 6 victories, a healthy total indeed.

Titles aren’t everything (this should be the name of Berdych’s autobiography). A Wimbledon final, a French Open semi, and a Masters final are a very difficult combination to pull off. Throw in solid runs at a number of other events and a few lovely upset wins, and you’ve got one of the ten best players in the world without breaking a sweat.

Number 6: David Ferrer, Spain (19.6)

Match record 60-24; Set record 143-66; Service game record 1141-880 (.565). ATP rank: 7.

Draw: Ferrer’s schedule comes in with a .462 W%75, making it the ninth-hardest of the year. He faced a startling 20 top-10 matches during the season (including the second-most played matchup of the year, playing Soderling in six matches that totaled 167 service games). By comparison, only 10 of Ferrer’s foes were outside the top 100.

Troubles: Ferrer failed to make it out of the fourth round of any of the Slams this year, and went 0-3 in round-robin play at the World Finals. He also failed to make it past the round of 16 at any of the six hard court Masters events.

Highlights: Ferrer captured titles in Acapulco and Valencia, and made finals in Beijing and Buenos Aires (losing to Ferrero and Djokovic, respectively). More significantly, he turned in a highly impressive performance during clay season, making the semis in Monte Carlos (lost to Nadal), the semis in Barcelona (lost to Verdasco), the finals in Rome (lost to Nadal after beating Murray, Tsonga, and Verdasco), and the semis in Madrid (lost to Federer after beating Cilic and Murray).

Ferrer played well, and as he always does, played a LOT. Despite his rather tepid performances at the biggest events of the year, his work in the clay Masters and runs in the smaller hard court tournaments are sufficient to easily justify this spot.

Number 5: Robin Soderling, Sweden (19.7)

Match record 55-22; Set record 135-68; Service game record 1098-862 (.560). ATP rank: 5.

Draw: Soderling’s adversaries offered a .456 W%75, giving him the fifth-most challenging schedule of 2010. He played 15 matches against top-10 opposition, compared to 7 outside the top 100.

Troubles: Soderling absorbed a few early losses, most notably his first-round match at the Australian Open. The clay season was often unkind to him as well, with consecutive quick exits in Rome, Madrid, and Nice.

Highlights: The finale of the clay season, on the other hand, went rather well for the Swede, as he made his second consecutive French Open final, ending Federer’s streak of consecutive Grand Slam semis on the way. Soderling also made the quarters at Wimbledon and the US Open, and prevailed at the Paris Masters event and Rotterdam; the Paris Masters title made Soderling the last Masters champion outside the Big Four for two years. Soderling also made the semis at both Indian Wells and Miami earlier in the year, and finals at Barcelona and Bsstad.

The 2010 season spread success among a larger number of players than most recent years have – there were six different Slam finalists, and six different Masters winners. Soderling achieved both of those feats, and that is the biggest reason for his status as the main challenger for the Big Four in 2010. He even briefly hurdled Murray and took the #4 spot in the ATP rankings near the end of the season. His run at the top did not ultimately last, but he demonstrated better than most that even the historically great top players of the last few years could be beaten, if only from time to time.

Number 4: Andy Murray, UK (21.4)

Match record 46-18; Set record 114-53; Service game record 905-681 (.571). ATP rank: 4.

Draw: Murray took on an exemplary schedule in 2010, good for a .450 W%75, second-roughest of the year. He faced twelve top-10 opponents, including Nadal four times, as compared to eight matches outside the top 100.

Troubles: Murray took four first- or second-round losses in 2010; he also fell in the third round at the US Open, and the fourth at the French. He also made a relatively low four finals, winning only two of them.

Highlights: The two titles were both Masters events, in Canada and Shanghai, and both of them came against Federer in the final, which is quite nice. One of the finals was in the Australian Open, also against Federer, and Murray complemented that with a Wimbledon semi (losing to Nadal) and a semifinal appearance at the World Finals (losing to Federer in round-robin and Nadal in the semis, but winning his other two matches).

Murray played a fierce draw this year, and played extremely well against it. That’s how you pull down two Masters titles, a Slam final, and another semi. It’s also how you secure a place in the top 4 for yet another year. Even though his Slam breakthrough was yet to come, Murray was firmly established among the world’s elite at this point.

Number 3: Novak Djokovic, Serbia (28.7)

Match record 61-18; Set record 157-60; Service game record 1183-863 (.578). ATP rank: 3.

Draw: Djokovic matched up against a .454 W%75 group of opponents, the third-most difficult in the world. He played twelve top-10 matches, against seven outside the top 100 (and three of those seven were in the top 110).

Troubles: Djokovic performed well at the Slams, but not astoundingly, losing in the quarters at the Australian and Roland Garros. He also won a mere (by his standards) two titles, and made just two other finals. In particular, he failed to make a single final in a Masters event.

Highlights: Djokovic took titles in Dubai and Beijing, but his biggest feat of 2010 was leading Serbia to a Davis Cup victory; he won all seven of his singles matches, and six of the seven foes were ranked #22 or higher – Querrey, Isner, Ljubicic, Cilic, Berdych, Simon (#42), and Monfils. That would actually make a believable run through a Slam, except that it’s too difficult – nobody plays six opponents ranked that high in a Slam draw. Djokovic also made the finals at the US Open (losing to Nadal) and Basel (losing to Federer).

The remarkable Davis Cup performance buoys Djokovic through what’s otherwise a rocky season for him – he ranked behind Murray before DC play was added into the data. He faced Federer five times (they were the third-most played matchup of the year, 144 service games) and lost four of them (the only win coming in the US Open semis, which is admittedly impressive); he also lost both of his matches against Nadal. The Djokovic of 2010 was knocking at the door, albeit no more loudly than he had for the preceding 2-3 seasons. It’s easy to look at this season in context of his 2011 breakthrough, but he was still a remarkable player in the years leading up to that transcendent effort.

Number 2: Roger Federer, Switzerland (34.5)

Match record 65-13; Set record 156-44; Service game record 1155-807 (.589). ATP rank: 2.

Draw: Federer took on a set of opponents that added up to a .450 W%75; he edged past Murray to earn the toughest draw in the world. He played 22 matches against top-10 competition, as opposed to only 7 against players outside the top 100.

Troubles: By Federer’s own standards, the fact that he only won one Slam was a disappointment; the fact that he only made it to one final was shocking, and the fact that he missed out on not just one semifinal, but two, was crushing. He also lost in the round of 16 or earlier in his first three Masters events of the year.

Highlights: Federer won the Australian Open, and went 5-0 at the World Finals. That’s more than enough for most people, but he also won the Cincinnati Masters and made three other Masters finals (Madrid, Canada, and Shanghai). Throw in titles in Basel and Stockholm, a final in Halle, a semi at the US Open and quarters at the French and Wimbledon, and you have a year that would delight most players.

Federer is not most players, and 2010 represented a legitimate slippage for him. Despite his struggles, such as they were, he still grades out as the second-best player in the world. The fact that his performance qualifies as a disappointment says an awful lot about how unbelievable he was at his best.

Number 1: Rafael Nadal, Spain (39.0)

Match record 71-10; Set record 173-38; Service game record 1220-813 (.600). ATP rank: 1.

Draw: Nadal’s slate doesn’t quite match those of the rest of the Big Four, largely because he can’t play himself. But he still exceeds everyone else’s, with a mark of .454 W%75, the fourth-hardest on tour. He played 15 matches against the top 10, and 10 outside the top 100.

Troubles: Precious few. Nadal sat out the month between the Australian Open and Indian Wells, and again for the month between the Shanghai Masters and the World Finals. He lost in the round of 16 at Shanghai – and that was his only remotely early defeat of the year, as he made at least the quarterfinals in every other event he played.

Highlights: The three Grand Slam wins (French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) are a good start. Throw in the three Clay Masters events (Monte Carlo, Rome, and Madrid), and a title in Tokyo to make it seven overall on the year. Then add a 4-1 run to the last match of the World Finals, Nadal’s best work there to this point in his career. You can tack on semifinals in three more Masters events (Indian Wells, Miami, and Canada) if you want, but that starts to feel almost gratuitous.

Nadal’s Slam titles didn’t necessarily come through the best competition he’s ever faced – Soderling, Berdych, and pre-2011 Djokovic in the finals. But the man still won three of the four biggest tournaments of the year, and made very strong showings in literally every event he played. He was the best player in the world in 2010, beyond any reasonable doubt.

Really, the most interesting feature of Nadal's 2010 ranking is not how it compares to the other players this year, but rather how it compares to the rankings in 2011. But that will be another topic for another post.