Saturday, April 12, 2014

Game of the Day (4/11/14)

What a day.

Yesterday's baseball included four of the top 11 games so far this season. Obviously, this is less impressive when there have been 155 total games played than it would be once a couple months have passed, but it still means that four of the 15 games were in the top 7% (roughly). All of them went to extras, with three making it at least 11 innings. Two of them included the road team going ahead in the top of the eighth, only to blow the lead in time to force additional baseball on an unsuspecting crowd. But neither of those quite managed to be the day's best effort.

That honor goes to Rangers 1, Astros 0 (12).

The pitching matchup was Scott Feldman and Yu Darvish; if the season ended today, they might finish 1-2 in the AL Cy Young voting. Given that, the fact that the first nine batters of the game were retired in order can hardly be considered surprising.

Prince Fielder broke that string with a leadoff walk in the bottom of the second. One out later, Mitch Moreland doubled Fielder to third, but Feldman retired the next two hitters, stranding both runners in scoring position. In the third, Shin-Soo Choo walked, but Elvis Andrus hit into a force and then got caught stealing. The bottom of the fifth saw Leonys Martin single with two outs, and like Andrus before him, get thrown out trying for second.

Meanwhile, Darvish had kept the bases completely clear of Astros through the first five innings. That finally changed in the sixth, as Matt Dominguez led off with a single. A groundout moved him to second, but Darvish prevented him from getting any further. Choo walked again and also moved up on a groundout in the bottom of the inning, but his teammates likewise did not produce additional advancement.

Jose Altuve walked in the top of the seventh, but it was the Texas lineup that assembled the real threat in the inning. With one out, Feldman hit consecutive batters (Kevin Kouzmanoff, back in the majors after a two-year absence, and Moreland). Pinch hitter Jim Adduci grounded out to move them to second and third, Martin was intentionally walked to load the bases, and Josh Wilson fanned, abandoning all three runners.

The same description could be applied to each of the next several innings: Astros go quietly, Rangers go loudly. Darvish set Houston down 1-2-3 in the eighth. Facing reliever Chad Qualls, meanwhile, Andrus singled and stole second with one out, Fielder was intentionally walked, Andrus stole third, and Kouzmanoff grounded out to leave him there. In the ninth, Joakim Soria worked around a walk to Dexter Fowler (who made it as far as second with two outs), while Kevin Chapman allowed singles to Martin and Wilson, then walked Choo to load the bases before Anthony Bass struck out Andrus to leave the winning run at third and force extras.

Alexi Ogando retired the Astros in order in the tenth, and in the bottom of the inning, Brad Peacock faced the biggest Ranger threat yet. Rios walked and stole second, spurring another intentional pass of Fielder. Kouzmanoff then drew a full-count walk to load the bases with nobody out. Houston went to a five-man infield, pulling Robbie Grossman for Marwin Gonzalez. Moreland hit into a force at home, and Robinson Chirinos struck out. With two outs having been made, Gonzalez returned to the outfield, and Martin grounded out into a normal defensive alignment to prolong the game further.

Dominguez greeted Neal Cotts with a single in the eleventh, but Gonzalez hit into a double play. Peacock allowed a single-and-steal to Choo in the bottom of the inning, but no other Rangers reached, making it the first time in five innings that the go-ahead or winning run didn't make it to third. Jason Castro drew a two-out walk from Jason Frasor in the top of the twelfth, but didn't move past first. And in the bottom of the inning, Texas finally got to Peacock, as Kouzmanoff singled with one out, moved up on a wild pitch, and came home on a two-out hit by Chirinos.

The game of April 11 30 years ago started with 15 consecutive RISP outs between the two teams. This one has it beat - the first 17 at bats with runners at second and/or third resulted in outs, and 14 of those came from the Rangers alone. Combine that with the fact that it was a 1-0, 12-inning game, and you get a contest that leaps to the top of the list in not one, but two of the WPL splits I use.

The first: Home vs. Road. The Astros had three at bats with a runner in scoring position all game, all of which came with the man at second and at least one out. Texas had 15 at bats with RISP, including seven with runners at both second and third, and five with the bases loaded. A fan could reasonably make a run to the concession stands while Houston batted, as long as the half-inning lasted long enough to allow him to return to his seat before Texas's lineup put him on the edge of it again. The Texas lineup accrued 3.58 WPL on its own during the game, as compared to the much tamer 1.596 for Houston; the disparity between those two amounts is the largest in any game so far this year.

The second: Hitting vs. Pitching. This one is rather less surprising. Hitters accumulate copious amounts of WPA through multiple large lead swings. Pitchers do it through long, slow marches of scoreless innings, preferably in tie games. Since this game remained both tied and scoreless for eleven and a half innings, the fact that the two pitching staffs combined for 1.708 WPA (not just WPL, but positive pitching WPA minus positive batting WPA), by far the largest total of the year, should not exactly put anyone in a state of vulnerability toward feather-over-knocking. This is the largest joint WPA score in either direction so far in 2014, although its lead over the largest hitting score is not enormous. For just pitching, however, the advantage is rather titanic - over 60% higher than the #2 game to date.

The near-complete lack of hitting from the Houston lineup keeps this from ranking among the absolute best games of the year (although, at #6 to date, it's no slouch). But it is clearly the most distinctive game of the season so far, and not unlikely to remain so for quite a long time.

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