Thursday, May 1, 2014

Game of the Day (4/30/14)

Royals 4, Blue Jays 2. The month closes out with a matchup of two young pitchers, one of whom pitched in the majors last year but still qualifies as a rookie (KC's Yordano Ventura), and the other one of whom did not make a big-league appearance last year, yet does not retain rookie eligibility (Toronto's Drew Hutchison).

Both starters allowed only one hit in the first inning. The difference was that Ventura permitted a two-out Jose Bautista single, while Hutchison yielded a leadoff double to Norichika Aoki, which allowed time for an Omar Infante bunt and an Eric Hosmer sac fly to score Aoki with the game's first run. Hutchison recovered to set the Royals down 1-2-3 in each of the next two innings, while Ventura allowed a walk in one and a single in the other, but kept both runners fastened to first.

A Blue Jay finally reached scoring position in the fourth, when Edwin Encarnacion walked and moved to second on a groundout before being stranded. The Royals also got a runner to second when Infante led off with a double, and promptly brought him home when Hosmer doubled as well, increasing the lead to 2-0. Hosmer moved to third on one ground ball, but was thrown out trying to score on another, defusing the remaining rally.

Ventura and Hutchison were both perfect in the fifth. Having thrown 92 pitches, Ventura was then removed from the game, and the Toronto lineup reacted as though they'd been intentionally waiting him out just so they could face the bullpen. Danny Duffy opened his outing by hitting Melky Cabrera with a pitch, then walked Bautista and was hustled from the mound with exceeding promptness. Aaron Crow gave up an RBI single to Encarnacion to bring the Jays within a run; he struck out Dioner Navarro, but then allowed a Juan Francisco single that tied the game. Crow completed the striking out of the side by cutting through Colby Rasmus and Moises Sierra, but the shutout and lead were both gone.

Hutchison worked a spotless sixth. Kelvin Herrera allowed a leadoff double to Chris Getz in the seventh, but eventually stranded him at third. Hutchison permitted a leadoff single to Billy Butler in the bottom of the inning. Butler was pulled for pinch runner Jimmy Paredes, who promptly justified his presence by stealing both second and third while Salvador Perez was working a one-out walk. Mike Moustakas fouled out, but Alcides Escobar doubled to score both runners and put KC back in front.

Wade Davis got himself into a spot of trouble in the top of the eighth, starting when Navarro singled and Francisco walked. Rasmus and Sierra both struck out, Getz walked to load the bases, and Jose Reyes struck out to leave the tying runs in scoring position. Todd Redmond relieved Hutchison in the eighth and allowed a Hosmer double but nothing else; Greg Holland entered for the ninth and did the same, with the double being hit by Encarnacion before Navarro flied out to end the game.

There is a rather famous Branch Rickey aphorism which states that it is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late. The starting pitchers in this game demonstrated the micro version of that statement: it's better to pull a pitcher an inning too early. The Royals pulled Ventura after five, and their bullpen blew the lead in the sixth - but the Jays stuck with Hutchison through the seventh, and he allowed KC to retake the lead that they would go on to hold for the rest of the game.

The other thing that pops out here is the strikeouts: the Jays pitchers combined for 5 in their 8 innings, the Royals 11 in their 9. In particular, six of those eleven strikeouts came in the sixth and eighth innings, which saw the Jays leave a combined five runners on base. If KC had allowed a bit more contact there, it's not unlikely that a hit or two drops in and the game goes differently.

This game brings us to the end of the Games of April, so let's close with a bit of summarizing:

The most exciting team of April was the White Sox, with an average WPL of 3.18 in their 29 games. This includes the second- and sixth-best games of the month, and the two best nine-inning games of this particular calendar page. Next on the list were the Pirates, with an average WPL of 3.11 thanks in part to their participation in the Game of April on the third day of the season. The least-dramatic team, with only two of their 26 games in the month's top 100, was the Yankees (2.36 WPL on average).

I've pre-entered several days of data for May 1984, and it's remarkable how quickly the drama picked up as that season entered its second month. Let's hope for more of the same 30 years later.

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