Melog Rankings: Post-Indian Wells 2015

It's been three weeks since our last checkup on the world's best tennis players - and in those three weeks, only one tournament was played on the ATP World Tour. This is actually a good sign as far as the interest level of the tennis that's been played: the tournament was the 96-man Indian Wells Masters event, one of the most important events on the calendar, and the extra week was taken up by the (very exciting) first round of Davis Cup play for 2015. Here's where we stand with those matches in the books:

Rank	Player	Melog	Rank change	Melog change
1	Novak Djokovic	57.3	0	3.9
2	Roger Federer	39.0	0	1.8
3	Rafael Nadal	27.0	0	2.9
4	Andy Murray	24.4	0	4.1
5	Kei Nishikori	20.6	0	1.8
6	David Ferrer	18.9	0	0.6
7	Milos Raonic	17.9	1	4.1
8	Tomas Berdych	15.3	-1	1.4
9	Stan Wawrinka	12.2	0	-1.0
10	Grigor Dimitrov	10.4	0	0.6
11	Gael Monfils	9.6	0	0.8
12	David Goffin	7.4	1	0.9
13	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	7.2	1	0.7
14	Marin Cilic	6.8	-2	-1.1
15	Roberto Bautista Agut	5.8	0	-0.2
16	Tommy Robredo	5.5	0	0.3
17	Gilles Simon	4.9	2	0.7
18	Richard Gasquet	4.7	0	0.1
19	Kevin Anderson	4.5	-2	-0.2
20	Philipp Kohlschreiber	4.2	1	0.8
21	Sam Querrey	3.4	-1	0.1
22	Viktor Troicki	3.3	0	0.2
23	Jack Sock	3.2	5	0.7
24	Pablo Cuevas	3.0	1	0.3
25	Adrian Mannarino	2.9	7	0.5
26	Gilles Muller	2.9	4	0.5
27	Andreas Seppi	2.9	0	0.3
28	Marcos Baghdatis	2.8	-4	0.0
29	Bernard Tomic	2.7	11	1.0
30	Fernando Verdasco	2.6	-4	0.0
31	Nick Kyrgios	2.6	7	0.6
32	John Isner	2.5	-1	0.1
33	Ivo Karlovic	2.4	3	0.2
34	Leonardo Mayer	2.4	-1	0.0
35	Ernests Gulbis	2.4	-12	-0.4
36	Nicolas Almagro	2.3	1	0.2
37	Steve Darcis	2.2	-2	-0.1
38	Alexandr Dolgopolov	2.1	-4	-0.2
39	Radek Stepanek	2.1	-10	-0.4
40	Juan Monaco	2.0	7	0.6
41	Feliciano Lopez	2.0	4	0.5
42	Jeremy Chardy	1.8	4	0.4
43	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez	1.7	-1	0.0
44	Martin Klizan	1.6	-1	0.0
45	Steve Johnson	1.4	4	0.3
46	Jiri Vesely	1.4	-2	-0.2
47	Donald Young	1.4	10	0.6
48	Simone Bolelli	1.4	0	0.1
49	Vasek Pospisil	1.3	10	0.7
50	Julien Benneteau	1.3	-9	-0.4

Minor housekeeping note: The #49 spot on the list is actually occupied by Florian Mayer, whose results within the last 12 months are now:

Defeated Ivan Dodig 6-3, 6-2 in the round of 64 at Miami

Withdrew before next match

Has not played again in the ensuing 50 weeks

For the most part, I'm willing to let the numbers say what they say, but it's rather obvious that Florian Mayer has not accomplished as much in the last 12 months as Julien Benneteau, or quite a few other people who are also ranked behind him. As such, I may occasionally make manual adjustments to the rankings in cases like this, and I will note them in commentary as they occur.

Anyway... The top of the list undergoes some movement this week, more in ranking value than in order (although Milos Raonic had an excellent fortnight, highlighted by his first win over Nadal, and passes Berdych as a result). There are two reasons for this. First, the addition of Davis Cup play boosts those who participated (Djokovic, Murray, Nishikori, and Raonic), and there's no corresponding decline because last year's DC first round occurred a month earlier and has therefore already been removed from consideration.

Second, and probably more significantly, this year's Indian Wells draw followed seeding much more closely than last year's. Yes, it was Djokovic over Federer in the final both times, but last year's other two semifinalists were Isner and Dolgopolov, rather than Murray and Raonic. Nadal and Nishikori also made significantly deeper runs than they had in 2014. There are three consequences to this. First, the players who performed better obviously improve in the rankings. Second, Novak and Roger faced tougher opponents on the way to their clash in the final, and are rewarded accordingly. And third, all of the matches the top eight have played against each other over the last year are made to look more difficult in hindsight, which has a nice rising-tide-lifts-all-boats effect on everyone in the elite group.

Lower down the rankings, there are a number of players making upward jumps. Jack Sock takes the court for the first time in 2015 and promptly makes the round of 16 at a Masters event for the first time, thereby moving up nicely (and reinforcing his spot as the top American on the Melog list). Bernard Tomic does him one round better, advancing to the quarterfinals before withdrawing (and throwing in a pair of straight-set Davis Cup wins). And Donald Young and Vasek Pospisil join the top 50, partly on the strength of respectable Davis Cup play.

On the other hand, Ernests Gulbis takes another nosedive this week, as his Indian Wells quarterfinal from last season disappears. Radek Stepanek also slides; he only made the round of 64 at Indian Wells last year, but took a set off of Nadal before losing that match, and has yet to play this season. Tommy Haas, who also hasn't appeared in 2015, slips from the top 50 entirely, and is joined in his exodus by Carlos Berlocq.

Before signing off with the obligatory mention of the upcoming Miami Masters, there's one more thing to mention this week (which probably could have been mentioned a while back, actually). There's one player on whom the Melog ratings and the ATP's have disagreed very stringently all season, and it's worth examining where that disagreement comes from and what it tells us about the two systems. That player is ATP World #12 Feliciano Lopez, whose quarterfinal run at Indian Wells (including a victory over Nishikori) moved him up only to the #41 spot on the Melog list.

Lopez has plenty of impressive results within the last 12 months - that's how you get to #12 in the world. He's made the fourth rounds at Wimbledon and the Australian Open, semifinals at the Shanghai and Canada Masters events and quarters at Madrid and Indian Wells. Throw in a title at Eastbourne and finals at Queen's Club and Quito, and you've got plenty of evidence to suggest a spot in the range of #12. And it's not as if he's had a ton of easy draws in those events; Lopez is an impressive 5-6 against top-10 players in the last 12 months, including a win over Nadal at Shanghai.

Lopez's issue is inconsistency. Yes, he's played well against top-10 competition - when he's lasted long enough to face them. But Lopez has also absorbed a number of early losses at the hands of lesser foes; his last 12 months have included 9 defeats (against 19 victories) by players ranked outside the ATP's top 50, including two losses to players outside the top 100 so far in 2015. By comparison, Gilles Simon (#14 in the ATP rankings, #17 in Melog) is a less-excellent 4-9 against top 10 opponents in the last year, but a much steadier 25-5 against non-top-50 foes.

The ATP rankings tend not to punish early losses in non-major events, at least as long as you have a few deeper runs to balance them out; most of Lopez's more inexplicable defeats are ignored entirely (he has six zero-point entries in the "Non-counted tournaments" section of his ATP rankings breakdown). The Melog system, on the other hand, counts all of them, and that's why his ranking is pushed lower than would be expected.

Coming up next time: Djokovic is defending another title in a 96-man Masters event, this time having faced Nadal in last year's final. (Last year's event also featured walkovers in both semifinals, which if memory serves, is the first time that's happened in an ATP event, ever.) Over the next two weeks, we'll see if Novak can defend his crown in Miami, and on Monday, we'll see what his success or failure (along with those of the other 95 players in the draw) does to the rankings as a whole.