Melog Rankings: Post-Miami 2015

Last time, we saw that this year's edition of the Indian Wells Masters event created only minor disturbances in the rankings, mostly because the outcome of the final was the same as it had been last year - Novak Djokovic over Roger Federer.

The fortnight since then brought the playing of another Masters event, this one in Miami. And while Djokovic defended this title as well (sweeping Indian Wells and Miami for the third time in his career), his victory in the final this year was over Andy Murray rather than Rafael Nadal. Let's see if that created a bit more movement.

Rank	Player	Melog	Rank change	Melog change
1	Novak Djokovic	59.5	0	2.2
2	Roger Federer	37.9	0	-1.1
3	Andy Murray	25.4	1	1.0
4	Rafael Nadal	24.9	-1	-2.1
5	Kei Nishikori	21.3	0	0.7
6	David Ferrer	19.5	0	0.6
7	Milos Raonic	17.7	0	-0.2
8	Tomas Berdych	16.2	0	0.9
9	Stan Wawrinka	12.7	0	0.5
10	Gael Monfils	10.5	1	0.9
11	Grigor Dimitrov	10.5	-1	0.0
12	David Goffin	8.4	0	1.0
13	Marin Cilic	7.5	1	0.8
14	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	7.3	-1	0.1
15	Roberto Bautista Agut	5.8	0	0.0
16	Gilles Simon	5.6	1	0.7
17	Tommy Robredo	5.3	-1	-0.2
18	Kevin Anderson	5.3	1	0.8
19	Richard Gasquet	5.0	-1	0.2
20	Philipp Kohlschreiber	4.2	0	0.1
21	Sam Querrey	3.7	0	0.3
22	Adrian Mannarino	3.4	3	0.5
23	Jack Sock	3.4	0	0.1
24	John Isner	3.3	8	0.8
25	Bernard Tomic	3.3	4	0.6
26	Viktor Troicki	3.2	-4	0.0
27	Andreas Seppi	3.2	0	0.3
28	Fernando Verdasco	3.2	2	0.6
29	Nick Kyrgios	2.7	2	0.1
30	Juan Monaco	2.6	10	0.6
31	Gilles Muller	2.5	-5	-0.4
32	Pablo Cuevas	2.5	-8	-0.5
33	Leonardo Mayer	2.4	1	0.0
34	Ernests Gulbis	2.4	1	0.1
35	Nicolas Almagro	2.4	1	0.1
36	Alexandr Dolgopolov	2.3	2	0.2
37	Ivo Karlovic	2.2	-4	-0.2
38	Steve Darcis	2.2	-1	0.0
39	Jeremy Chardy	2.1	3	0.3
40	Feliciano Lopez	2.0	1	0.0
41	Radek Stepanek	2.0	-2	-0.1
42	Marcos Baghdatis	1.9	-14	-0.9
43	Guillermo Garcia Lopez	1.8	0	0.1
44	Simone Bolelli	1.7	4	0.4
45	Jiri Vesely	1.6	1	0.2
46	Steve Johnson	1.6	-1	0.2
47	Martin Klizan	1.6	-3	-0.1
48	Ivan Dodig	1.5	4	0.4
49	Carlos Berlocq	1.4	4	0.3
50	Donald Young	1.4	-3	0.0

And we have our first order change of the year among the top four, with Murray replacing Nadal not only in the Miami final but also in the #3 spot in the rankings. We also have a new member of the top 10, with Gael Monfils edging past the slumping Grigor Dimitrov.

The biggest climbers lower in the rankings are John Isner (semifinal in Miami, which he made by beating Dimitrov, Raonic, and Nishikori in consecutive matches), and Juan Monaco, who made the quarters via straight-set wins over Gulbis, Garcia-Lopez, and Verdasco. The tumblers are Pablo Cuevas, who had an impressive Challenger title from last March expire, and Marcos Baghdatis, who replaced a third-round run in 2014 Miami with a first-round loss, and followed that with a tepid second-round showing at the Le Gosier Challenger.

The movements on the fringes of the top 50 (Ivan Dodig and Carlos Berlocq squeezing in just past Vasek Pospisil and Julien Benneteau) are pretty meaningless.

And that leaves me a chance to talk about something else - namely, the upward movement going on at the top of the rankings. This is the second straight week in which Djokovic has defended a Masters title - and in both of those weeks, his Melog score has noticeably increased despite the fact that his ATP ranking has remained constant. His score over the last year's worth of matches is approaching the point at which it would be comparable to his historically extraordinary work from 2011-13. And given the lackluster nature of his early clay results last year (Monte Carlo semifinal, missed Madrid with injury), he'll have a good chance of improving a good deal more in the coming weeks.

Speaking of the coming weeks, clay season is now beginning in earnest. As usual, the player to watch during clay season will be Rafael Nadal - but the reasons may be different this year. Rafa struggled on clay at times last year, losing in the quarterfinals of two events (Monte Carlo and Barcelona) that he has reliably dominated in the past. He rebounded to win Madrid (albeit against a weakened field that included neither Djokovic nor Federer), made the final in Rome, and won his ninth French Open.

So, the question of the next two months (among many others): Will Nadal rebound to his previous level of untouchability on the red dirt? Will he maintain last year's level, which can be characterized as "excellent but human?" Or will he decline further and cede his throne as the world's best clay courter for the first time in a decade?

See you in two weeks after Monte Carlo, our first real chance to take the temperature of the world's best on the surface that will rule the tour through the end of May.