Monday, March 14, 2016

Past Melog rankings: 2012

2012 was a strange tennis year in some ways. Most notably, it was the first time in nearly a decade that the four Grand Slams were won by four different players. The previous eight years had been dominated by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal almost exclusively, with Novak Djokovic sprinting past both of them and seizing the top spot in 2011. But the relative parity of major success in 2012 might have seemed like an indicator that the tennis commoners would soon have their chances to move up in the world again. (Sure, the four Slam winners were Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Andy Murray, and they exclusively faced each other in the finals. On the other hand, David Ferrer won the Paris Masters, the first non-big-four player to take a title at that level in two years, and Juan Martin del Potro won the Olympic bronze medal, beating Djokovic to clinch third place after losing an epic to Federer in the semis.)

Let's take a closer look and see if there really was reason for hope for the sport's proletariat.

As always, the table comes first, and as always, it will include everyone in both the Melog top 75 and the ATP's:

Rank
Player
Melog
ATP Rank
ATP Pts
1
Novak Djokovic
86.5
1
12920
2
Roger Federer
62.4
2
10265
3
David Ferrer
53.1
5
6505
4
Andy Murray
52.7
3
8000
5
Rafael Nadal
50.7
4
6690
6
Tomas Berdych
45.7
6
4680
7
Juan Martin Del Potro
42.7
7
4480
8
Jo Wilfried Tsonga
29.4
8
3490
9
Nicolas Almagro
22.5
11
2515
10
Richard Gasquet
20.4
10
2515
11
Milos Raonic
19.3
13
2380
12
Janko Tipsarevic
17.9
9
2990
13
Stanislas Wawrinka
15.3
17
1900
14
Tommy Haas
15.2
21
1695
15
Juan Monaco
14.5
12
2430
16
Marin Cilic
13.4
15
2210
17
John Isner
12.5
14
2215
18
Philipp Kohlschreiber
12.1
20
1770
19
Kei Nishikori
11.8
19
1830
20
Sam Querrey
11.5
22
1650
21
Gilles Simon
10.5
16
2165
22
Mikhail Youzhny
9.5
25
1335
23
Andreas Seppi
9.2
23
1560
24
Mardy Fish
8.7
27
1255
25
Radek Stepanek
8.7
31
1135
26
Alexandr Dolgopolov
8.6
18
1855
27
Marcos Baghdatis
8.5
36
1070
28
David Nalbandian
8.2
82
635
29
Fernando Verdasco
7.3
24
1490
30
Kevin Anderson
6.9
37
1065
31
Martin Klizan
6.9
30
1175
32
Thomaz Bellucci
6.7
33
1112
33
Julien Benneteau
5.8
35
1075
34
Feliciano Lopez
5.0
40
1005
35
Andy Roddick
4.9
39
1015
36
Gael Monfils
4.9
77
660
37
Grigor Dimitrov
4.8
48
866
38
Santiago Giraldo
4.8
57
778
39
Jarkko Nieminen
4.6
41
927
40
Denis Istomin
4.5
43
897
41
Florian Mayer
4.2
28
1215
42
Nikolay Davydenko
3.8
44
885
43
Jeremy Chardy
3.6
32
1131
44
Jerzy Janowicz
3.4
26
1299
45
Michael Llodra
3.2
53
823
46
Ivo Karlovic
3.1
100
556
47
David Goffin
3.0
46
868
48
Edouard Roger Vasselin
3.0
102
545
49
Benoit Paire
2.9
47
867
50
Lukas Rosol
2.8
73
679
51
Nicolas Mahut
2.8
108
515
52
Viktor Troicki
2.7
38
1055
53
Albert Ramos
2.6
50
830
54
Ryan Harrison
2.6
69
710
55
Igor Sijsling
2.6
68
712
56
Yen Hsun Lu
2.5
59
759
57
Steve Darcis
2.4
93
571
58
Carlos Berlocq
2.4
66
720
59
Paul Henri Mathieu
2.4
58
763
60
Bernard Tomic
2.4
52
825
61
Xavier Malisse
2.3
63
746
62
Tommy Robredo
2.2
114
495
63
Victor Hanescu
2.1
62
753
64
Lleyton Hewitt
2.1
83
625
65
Andrey Kuznetsov
2.1
78
660
66
Brian Baker
2.0
61
756
67
Roberto Bautista Agut
2.0
80
648
68
Marcel Granollers
1.9
34
1100
69
Benjamin Becker
1.9
65
741
70
Lukasz Kubot
1.9
74
675
71
Aljaz Bedene
1.8
86
583
72
Alejandro Falla
1.6
54
809
73
Horacio Zeballos
1.6
85
615
74
Go Soeda
1.6
60
758
75
Fabio Fognini
1.5
45
880
77
Leonardo Mayer
1.5
71
702
80
Gilles Muller
1.4
67
719
83
Robin Haase
1.2
56
780
90
Jurgen Melzer
1.0
29
1177
93
Bjorn Phau
1.0
75
668
96
Marinko Matosevic
0.9
49
845
100
Paolo Lorenzi
0.8
64
744
102
Ivan Dodig
0.8
72
695
103
Daniel Gimeno Traver
0.7
70
704
114
Lukas Lacko
0.5
51
827
119
Pablo Andujar
0.4
42
915
156
Grega Zemlja
-0.1
55
782

Well. The top of that table seems to present quite the glass ceiling to anyone outside the top 7. (Del Potro's rating of 42.7 would have placed him 3rd, 4th, and 4th in the years 2013-15; this year, it gets him #7.) If anything, the top tier looks bigger and stronger in 2012 than it had previously, because there were more upper-echelon guys banding together to oppress the masses.

Let's compare 2012's top 7 to two other sets of players. We'll use top 7 from 2013 (the same group of players in both years, in both the Melog and ATP ratings), as well as the top 7 from 2003, the last year before 2012 in which the Slams were split four ways. (Once again, the ATP and Melog systems agree on the top 7 that year - you can look up who they are if you want, but I'm not spoiling Melog's order among them).

Overall records of the top 7 players:
2012: 446-101 (.815 W%)
2013: 402-106 (.791)
2003: 451-133 (.772)

By the most basic measurement, 2012 seems to have the most dominant top group (if you're OK with the relatively arbitrary selection of 7 players, at least). But raw winning percentage isn't everything, especially because the top players in tennis generally spend quite a bit of time facing each other, which will always result in a loss for one of them. So what happens when we account for that?

Records of the top 7 against players outside the top 7:
2012: 383-38 (.910)
2013; 351-55 (.865)
2003: 419-101 (.806)

The difference gets even bigger - mostly because there were more matches between top-7 players in 2012 (63) than in either of the other years (51 in 2013, 32 in 2003).

Clearly, the fact that the Slams were split four ways in 2012 wasn't so much representative of a return to parity in tennis as it was a result of the kind of infighting you'll sometimes see while an oligarchy solidifies itself in power.

Before we finish up, here are the usual tables of players on whom Melog and the ATP disagreed in 2012.

Melog liked:
Player
Melog
ATP
2012 Age
2013 ATP
David Nalbandian
28
82
30
229
Ivo Karlovic
46
100
33
78
Gael Monfils
36
77
26
31
Edouard Roger Vasselin
48
102
29
52
Nicolas Mahut
51
108
30
50
Tommy Robredo
62
114
30
18
David Ferrer
3
5
30
3
Steve Darcis
57
93
28
164
Tommy Haas
14
21
34
12
Santiago Giraldo
38
57
25
69
Wait, Santiago Giraldo is on Melog's good list this time? He's been in the opposite group multiple times. Melog needs to make up its mind.

Anyway... this list looks pretty good. Nalbandian, Darcis, and Giraldo did not support Melog's good opinion of them going forward (Nalbandian's career was nearly over at this point), but Melog nailed Monfils, Roger Vasselin, Mahut, Ferrer, and Haas, and Robredo jumped hugely in both systems in 2013 as he completed his injury comeback. Karlovic is the only guy on the list who settled comfortably between the two ratings the next year.

ATP liked:
Player
Melog
ATP
2012 Age
2013 ATP
Jurgen Melzer
90
29
31
27
Grega Zemlja
156
55
26
121
Pablo Andujar
119
42
26
48
Lukas Lacko
114
51
25
81
Marcel Granollers
68
34
26
38
Marinko Matosevic
96
49
27
61
Jerzy Janowicz
44
26
22
21
Fabio Fognini
75
45
25
16
Paolo Lorenzi
100
64
31
109
That list is much worse. The only clear Melog win out of the nine players is Lorenzi; you can argue for Zemlja and Lacko, but both are pretty firmly established in between their ratings in the two systems. And Melzer, Andujar, Granollers, and Janowicz all maintained their positions in the ATP ratings, while Fognini climbed even higher. (There are some caveats there - for instance, Janowicz's 2012 and 2013 ATP rankings are both based on one big run at an important tournament, and he's slipped considerably after failing to duplicate that success in the following two years. But it's still not a great-looking list.)

Next time we take a step back, it'll be to 2011. We will eventually reach a year in which Melog does not have Novak Djokovic at #1, but given that Novak's 2011 is one of the great seasons in tennis history, it probably won't be that year.

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