Monday, October 17, 2016

Melog Rankings: Post-Shanghai 2016

The Asian swing is usually one of Novak Djokovic's favorite parts of the tennis season. In particular, he has dominated the 500-point tournament in Beijing like nothing else, having never lost a match there. In 2015, he won both Beijing and the Shanghai Masters, providing yet another exclamation point on a season full of them.

This year? This year, Djokovic pulled out of Beijing with an injury, and lost in the semifinals in Shanghai. And that actually overstates his performance; there were so many early upsets in Shanghai that Djokovic didn't face an opponent in the top 40 until the semifinals, where he lost in straight sets to Roberto Bautista Agut. Meanwhile, both the Beijing and Shanghai titles were instead captured by Andy Murray. Murray, who entered the month over 2000 points behind Djokovic in ATP ranking points for 2016, returns to Europe trailing by just over 900, within relatively easy striking distance of the year-end number 1 spot.

And in the Melog ratings. the upheaval is even bigger.



Player
Melog
Rank change (last update)
Melog change (last update)
Rank change (start of yr)
Melog change
(start of yr)
1
Andy Murray
67.8
1
7.6
1
2.0
2
Novak Djokovic
63.7
-1
-11.7
-1
-37.6
3
Rafael Nadal
35.7
0
-2.8
1
-4.5
4
Kei Nishikori
31.9
0
-0.9
4
0.4
5
Gael Monfils
27.5
2
1.7
12
12.5
6
Stanislas Wawrinka
27.4
-1
-1.9
1
-5.2
7
Roger Federer
26.5
-1
0.1
-4
-38.9
8
Milos Raonic
25.8
0
2.0
2
6.9
9
Marin Cilic
22.3
0
-0.3
13
10.3
10
Tomas Berdych
21.1
0
-1.2
-5
-15.4
11
David Goffin
20.9
2
2.9
8
6.7
12
Roberto Bautista Agut
20.4
0
1.7
-1
1.8
13
Dominic Thiem
18.6
-2
-0.1
17
10.0
14
Nick Kyrgios
17.0
0
0.6
10
5.7
15
Richard Gasquet
15.5
0
0.2
-6
-10.1
16
David Ferrer
14.0
1
0.1
-10
-20.1
17
Juan Martin Del Potro
14.0
-1
0.0
87
12.8
18
Jo Wilfried Tsonga
13.9
0
0.1
-5
-3.9
19
Grigor Dimitrov
13.1
2
2.5
2
0.4
20
Alexander Zverev
12.3
3
2.3
64
10.2
21
John Isner
10.4
-2
-2.5
-7
-6.4
22
Philipp Kohlschreiber
10.2
-2
-0.9
-6
-5.5
23
Jack Sock
9.8
-1
-0.7
-3
-3.5
24
Gilles Simon
9.8
3
1.4
-9
-6.6
25
Andrey Kuznetsov
9.2
1
0.3
66
7.4
26
Fernando Verdasco
8.9
2
0.5
1
-0.4
27
Pablo Cuevas
8.9
-3
-1.0
13
2.5
28
Steve Johnson
8.9
-3
-0.2
0
-0.1
29
Lucas Pouille
8.5
2
1.2
58
6.6
30
Gilles Muller
8.0
-1
-0.4
-5
-3.1
31
Pablo Carreno Busta
7.6
3
1.3
37
4.6
32
Marcos Baghdatis
6.7
0
-0.3
9
0.7
33
Kyle Edmund
6.7
8
1.1
66
5.3
34
Mikhail Youzhny
6.3
-1
-0.1
152
6.6
35
Bernard Tomic
5.9
-5
-1.9
-12
-5.4
36
Ivo Karlovic
5.7
-1
-0.5
-18
-8.5
37
Carlos Berlocq
5.6
6
0.1
34
2.7
38
Sam Querrey
5.5
2
-0.2
5
0.0
39
Guido Pella
5.4
-2
-0.5
19
1.8
40
Viktor Troicki
5.2
4
0.2
-6
-2.4
41
John Millman
5.1
-2
-0.7
24
1.9
42
Feliciano Lopez
5.1
0
-0.5
-10
-3.1
43
Albert Ramos
4.8
-7
-1.1
-7
-2.5
44
Fabio Fognini
4.8
-6
-1.0
-5
-1.8
45
Marcel Granollers
4.3
7
0.7
56
3.0
46
Yen Hsun Lu
4.2
-1
-0.7
9
0.2
47
Jeremy Chardy
3.8
0
-0.1
-18
-4.9
48
Nicolas Mahut
3.8
1
0.0
50
2.3
49
Daniel Evans
3.7
2
0.0
58
2.7
50
Federico Delbonis
3.7
4
0.3
6
-0.2
51
Jiri Vesely
3.7
-2
-0.1
-4
-1.1
52
Guido Andreozzi
3.7
-5
-1.0
88
3.5
53
Borna Coric
3.6
0
0.1
8
0.3
54
Adrian Mannarino
3.2
9
0.7
-3
-1.2
55
Kevin Anderson
3.2
-7
-0.7
-43
-15.0
56
Nicolas Almagro
3.1
4
0.3
-2
-1.0
57
Juan Monaco
3.0
1
0.0
-12
-2.2
58
Paolo Lorenzi
2.9
-2
-0.1
16
0.2
59
Radek Stepanek
2.9
7
0.4
61
2.2
60
Jan Lennard Struff
2.8
4
0.4
45
1.7
61
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
2.7
-5
-0.5
21
0.4
62
Mischa Zverev
2.7
31
1.3
34
1.0
63
Thomaz Bellucci
2.6
-2
-0.1
-17
-2.6
64
Alexandr Dolgopolov
2.4
2
0.0
-33
-6.2
65
Andreas Seppi
2.4
2
0.1
-30
-5.1
66
Leonardo Mayer
2.3
3
0.1
-28
-4.3
67
Dudi Sela
2.3
-8
-0.5
25
0.5
68
Gastao Elias
2.2
2
0.0
78
2.1
69
Steve Darcis
2.1
8
0.2
37
1.0
70
Pierre Hugues Herbert
2.1
1
0.1
11
-0.3
71
Robin Haase
2.0
10
0.3
3
-0.7
72
Ivan Dodig
2.0
-10
-0.6
-20
-2.2
73
Karen Khachanov
2.0
6
0.2
84
2.0
74
Taylor Harry Fritz
2.0
-19
-1.4
-2
-0.9
75
Dustin Brown
1.9
-7
-0.3
47
1.3

Why yes, that IS someone other than Novak Djokovic occupying the #1 spot. Which is the first time that's happened in any of my week-to-week Melog ratings. (Yes, I've only been doing them for a little over a year, but Novak's lead for most of that time has been... considerable.)

So what's the deal? How has Murray more than made up a Melog deficit that was 93.2-55.0 as recently as the French Open, which ended less than five months ago (at which point Djokovic held all four Slam titles)? Well, let's say it's been an interesting less-than-five months. Since the French Open, Murray has gone a remarkable 37-3, winning five titles (Wimbledon, the Olympics, Shanghai, Beijing, and Queen's Club). Djokovic has gone 15-4, taking only the Rogers Cup title during that period.

That's a big difference in two ways. First, Murray has been better when on the court, winning over 90% of his matches while Novak has been below 80%. And second, Murray has played over twice as many matches over the same period. As a result, he's easily overtaken Djokovic as the tour leader in service games played over the last 12 months - 2208, exactly 100 more than Dominic Thiem (who's second), and nearly 400 more than Djokovic. (For the sake of comparison, the final service game totals in 2016 had the two men almost even, Murray at 2216 and Djokovic at 2192.)

Djokovic still leads Murray in the modified Elo rating before the playing time adjustment comes into effect, but his lead there has shrunk considerably. And Murray's growing advantage in time on the court (he's slated to play the event in Vienna next week, while Djokovic won't play again until Paris the week after) is enough to overcome it in these rankings.

The movement lower down on the lists is less monumental, but not without interest. David Goffin reached the final in Tokyo and the quarters in Shanghai, pulling nice upsets along the way (Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils), and moves back onto the fringe of the top 10. Nick Kyrgios, who bested both Monfils and Goffin in Tokyo, still gains no ground at all because of what happened in Shanghai: he tanked his second-round match against a player outside the top 100 so egregiously (6-3 6-1 overstates the level of effort he put forth) that he's been suspended by the ATP for two months for conduct detrimental to the game. Which is a nice way to overshadow his third title of the year (and which all-but erases any gains in Melog from his victory). The tour's gradual youth movement continues a bit further down, however, as Alexander Zverev posted a pair of solid outings in China (defeating Thiem and Sock in Beijing, then Isner and Cilic in Shanghai) and joins then top 20 for the first time (while still being a teenager until next April).

Even though there's always action on the low end of things, the main story to watch over the next month is still the top spot in the rankings, and whether Murray can finally grab it for the first time. And as a side note there, the ATP's decision to ignore the Olympics in the rankings may prove to be VERY significant in the outcome. In 2012, Olympic Gold was worth 750 points in the rankings, a figure that would all but erase the difference between Murray and Djokovic so far this year if it were applied to Murray's total. (Djokovic lost in the first round in Rio and would therefore receive no points.) Given that Murray also played well in the Davis Cup this year, which is another ITF event that the ATP chronically under-emphasizes, I almost wonder if the ITF might split from the ATP and recognize Murray as #1 if Djokovic ends up winning by a narrow enough margin. (On the other hand, given their relative levels of play right now, Murray may well just grab the top spot outright.)

We'll be back in two weeks, right before the year's final Masters event, to check in on the contenders for #1, the contenders for spots in the World Finals, and whatever else happens between now and then.

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