The 20 best postseason hitters ever (by one method, anyway)

Since the postseason evaluation of this year's Hall of Fame ballot turned out to be so pitching-heavy, here’s something to counterbalance it: the top 20 postseason hitters of all time, by Championship Probability Added, with accompanying breakdowns of their performances.

20. Thurman Munson

1976 ALCS	+155
1976 WS	+5
1977 ALCS	-16
1977 WS	+81
1978 ALCS	+154
1978 WS	+96
Total	+474

Munson hit .357/.378/.496 in the playoffs over this three-year run. Included in that impressive line were such moments as driving in the go-ahead run in the eighth inning of Game 1 of the ’77 Series, driving in the tying run in the eighth in Game 4 of the ’78 Series, and hitting what proved to be the game-winning 2-run homer in the eighth in Game 3 of the ’78 ALCS (the game when George Brett hit 3 homers). That’s a pretty good selection of big hits.

19. Keith Hernandez

1982 NLCS	+1
1982 WS	+297
1986 NLCS	-41
1986 WS	+205
1988 NLCS	+11
Total	+474

The raw numbers are fairly unimpressive – only .265/.370/.359, with 6 extra-base hits in 117 at bats and a worse line in the World Series. So where does the big score come from?

Hernandez played in two 7-game World Series – and his two best games were the two Game 7’s, both of which his teams won. In the bottom of the sixth in the final game of the ’82 Series, Hernandez came to bat with the bases loaded, one out, and the Cards down by two, and singled in two runs to tie the game and move the go-ahead run to third (George Hendrick drove it in a batter later and the Cards never looked back). In 1986, he did almost exactly the same thing – bottom of the sixth, Mets down 3 with the bases loaded and one out, Hernandez singled in two and moved the tying run to third, and it scored a batter later (this time on Gary Carter’s groundout). The Mets would take the lead for good in the seventh, with Hernandez adding a sac fly to cap the rally.

If you're going to pick one situation in which to hit well, you could do much, much worse than "bases loaded, one out, sixth inning of Game 7 of the World Series with your team behind but not by an impossible margin." Hernandez's placement is a reward for these two instances of impeccable timing.

18. Duke Snider

1949 WS	-192
1952 WS	+339
1953 WS	+30
1955 WS	+92
1956 WS	+131
1959 WS	+90
Total	+489

Excellent raw numbers - .286/.351/.594, 11 homers and 26 RBI in 36 games. Slugged over .800 in two of his six Series, ’52 and ’55. Going game-by-game on his tremendous effort in ’52:

Game 1 – Go-ahead 2-run homer in the sixth inning, Dodgers win 4-2. Snider (obviously) provided the winning margin.

Game 2 – Bunt single in the middle of a rally that gave the Dodgers the game’s first run. The Yankees recovered and won 7-1.

Game 3 – Moved down in the order because the Yankees started left-handed Eddie Lopat; the move worked out, as the Dodgers won 5-3 despite Snider scuffling to the tune of 1 for 5.

Game 4 – 0 for 4, but reached on an error once. Allie Reynolds shut out the Dodgers and tied the series at 2.

Game 5 – Here we go with the heroics again. 2-run homer in the fifth inning to give the team a 4-0 lead. The Yanks rallied with 5 in the bottom of the inning. In the top of the seventh, Snider singled in Billy Cox to tie the game, and in the eleventh, he doubled in Cox with the eventual winning run. That’s a WPA of .542, and thus a CPA of .271 from that game alone.

Game 6 – Dodgers lose 3-2. Snider hit 2 solo homers, making him literally the team's entire offense.

Game 7 – Snider scored Brooklyn’s first run, tying the game in the bottom of the fourth, but then grounded out with the go-ahead run at second in the fifth and popped up with the bases loaded and the Dodgers down 2 in the seventh.

The Yankees, of course, won the game and the Series, leaving Snider with the archetypically Dodgeresqe feat of posting one of the 10 best World Series ever for a player on the losing team. Remarkably enough, it wasn’t even the best Series a Dodger had in a loss in the ‘50s; Clem Labine exceeded it in 1956 on the mound, and Pee Wee Reese actually bested Snider’s effort in the ’52 Series itself, largely on the strength of a hit, a walk, and an RBI in Game 7.

The rest of Snider’s postseason career was also very good, including the efforts that helped his team win its first and second ever championships ('55 and '59, respectively).

17. Yadier Molina

2004 NLCS	-13
2004 WS	-28
2005 NLDS	+9
2005 NLCS	+15
2006 NLDS	-8
2006 NLCS	+214
2006 WS	+47
2009 NLDS	-29
2011 NLDS	-38
2011 NLCS	+13
2011 WS	+221
2012 NLWC	-6
2012 NLDS	-23
2012 NLCS	+6
2013 NLDS	+6
2013 NLCS	-14
2013 WS	+117
Total	+489

Three big series on the positive side of the ledger, and (just as important) no big ones on the negative side. The overall line of .294/.351/.381 doesn’t blow you away, but he’s played better in the later rounds (OPS around .800 in both the LCS and World Series), and he’d be a folk hero forever in St. Louis for his go-ahead homer in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the ’06 NLCS alone.

16. Tim McCarver

1964 WS	+334
1967 WS	-43
1968 WS	+272
1976 NLCS	-18
1977 NLCS	-45
1978 NLCS	+4
Total	+504

The basic numbers sum up McCarver’s contributions pretty well – 11 for 23 with 5 RBI and 5 walks in the ’64 Series (including a tenth-inning 3-run homer in Game 5), 9 for 27 with a homer, 2 triples, and 4 RBI in ’68 (including a go-ahead 3-run homer in Game 3). McCarver hit badly in the ’67 Series, but the games in that series were nearly all blowouts, so he’s not penalized too harshly for that, and he arguably should have been Series MVP in ’64 (yes, even over Bob Gibson). So Molina still has a bit of work to do if he wants to take over as the best Cardinal catcher in postseason history.

15. Paul Molitor

1981 ALDS	-1
1982 ALCS	+57
1982 WS	+26
1993 ALCS	+89
1993 WS	+338
Total	+510

Sometimes, a big CPA score like the one Molitor posted in the 1993 Fall Classic requires detailed explanation of the situations in which the player batted and the results he produced in those situations. Other times, it’s enough to point out that the player went 12 for 24, slugged 1.000, drove in 8 runs and scored 10 in 6 games.

In the 1993 World Series, Paul Molitor went 12 for 24, slugged 1.000, drove in 8 runs and scored 10 in 6 games. He also slugged over .600 in both of his LCS appearances. Hitting like that is a very good way to appear on a list of the best postseason hitters ever.

14. Max Carey

1925 WS	+513
Total	+513

Our first (but not last) one-series wonder. Carey went 11 for 24 in the ’25 Series, with 4 doubles, 2 RBI, 6 runs, 3 steals, 2 walks, and 3 times hit by pitch. That’s a fine effort, but it doesn’t leap off the page; Molitor’s states in the aforementioned ’93 Series were better, and he had other appearances to go with it.

So why does Carey come out slightly ahead? The answer will be familiar to anyone who’s followed Jack Morris’s Hall of Fame candidacy: Game 7, which was a genuinely remarkable contest.

The Senators took the early lead with four runs in the top of the first. At that point, they could reasonably have expected to cruise to victory; four runs is a big lead, and their starting pitcher (a) had two complete-game wins in the Series already, having allowed one run between the two starts, and (b) was Walter Johnson, who is probably the most common choice for “best pitcher ever.”

The Pirates failed to score in the first (despite Carey’s double) or second, but broke through with three runs in the third. Carey’s single drove in Eddie Moore with the second of those runs; he then moved to second on a groundout, stole third, and scored on a Clyde Barnhart single to bring his team within a run. Washington tacked on two runs in the fourth on a Joe Harris double; the Pirates got one back in the fifth when Carey and Kiki Cuyler hit consecutive doubles.

Then, in the seventh, Carey came up with Moore on second and hit his third double of the game to bring his team within 6-5; he went on to score the tying run on Pie Traynor’s triple (Traynor was thrown out trying to make it into a go-ahead inside-the-park homer, which would have been inordinately great). Washington recaptured the lead in the eighth on a homer by AL MVP Roger Peckinpaugh, and Johnson (who was still pitching despite having allowed 6 runs) recorded the first two outs in the bottom of the inning without incident. But Earl Smith doubled, and pinch hitter Carson Bigbee doubled to score pinch runner Emil Yde with the tying run. Moore walked, bringing Carey back to the plate. Carey grounded to short, where Peckinpaugh fielded the ball… and threw it away for his eighth error of the Series, allowing the Pirates to load the bases. (It was thought at the time that Peckinpaugh’s selection as AL MVP put undue pressure on him during the Series, leading to his dismal fielding performance; this is why MVPs and the other major awards are now announced after the World Series concludes.) Cuyler followed with a ground-rule double, giving the Pirates their first lead of the day and the only one they would need.

Johnson’s -.806 WPA in a decisive World Series game would be an astounding figure for anyone, let alone one of the best pitchers of all time. And the man most responsible for inflicting it on him (well, besides Senators manager Bucky Harris, who probably should have pulled his ace at some point) was Max Carey, with 4 hits (3 doubles), 3 runs, 2 RBI, and one grounder that should-have-but-didn't allow the Big Train to escape the eighth with a tie. It adds up to .404 WPA in a Game 7, which of course translates to .404 CPA, which is why Carey is here.

13. Tris Speaker

1912 WS	+444
1915 WS	+21
1920 WS	+75
Total	+540

The overall numbers are good, .306/.398/.458 in the Deadball Era. But his place on this list is secured primarily by two at bats, one of which is famous and one of which is obscure.

The famous one first: In Game 8 of the 1912 World Series (yes, Game 8; I’ll explain later), the Giants forged a 1-1 tie with Speaker’s Red Sox through 9 innings. New York scored a run against Smoky Joe Wood in the top of the tenth, giving the great Christy Mathewson a chance to close out the series. Pinch hitter Clyde Engle started the bottom of the inning with a fly ball to center, which was famously misplayed by Fred Snodgrass. Harry Hooper’s long fly (on which Snodgrass reportedly made an exceptional play) moved Engle to third, and Steve Yerkes walked, bringing Speaker to the plate.

Speaker hit a foul popup up the first base line that the Giants failed to field (possibly due to either Mathewson or Speaker himself calling off the first baseman), then took advantage of his second opportunity with a game-tying RBI single that put the potential Series-clinching run at third with one out. An intentional walk later, Larry Gardner’s flyout brought that run home. According to WPA, Speaker’s single was the most significant component of that famous rally.

Now for the obscure hit. In Game 2 of that same Series, Mathewson was again pitching for the Giants, and was again let down by his defense. The Sox plated three unearned runs in the first; the Giants picked up single runs in the second and fourth, but the Sox added another unearned tally in the fifth. New York scored thrice in the eighth to take its first lead, and the Sox replied with another Giant-abetted run to tie the game at 5. The ninth inning ended with the score unchanged, and the Giants took the lead in the tenth when Fred Merkle tripled and scored on a sac fly.

With one out in the bottom of the tenth, Speaker stepped to the plate. He hammered a drive to deep center and raced around the bases to third, but he wasn’t satisfied with a triple. His daring attempt to score paid off when catcher Chief Meyers dropped the throw home, allowing Speaker to cross the plate with the tying run (and the sixth unearned run of the day allowed by Mathewson).

The game was called after the eleventh inning (there weren’t any lights to turn on in 1912), entering the books as the second tie in World Series history. Had Speaker not come up with what was effectively a defense-assisted home run, the Giants likely would have won the game, and if the subsequent contests had played out the same way, New York would have captured the Series in 7. Instead, Speaker gave the Sox an extra game to work with, and they took advantage, securing the victory in the only eight-game best-of-seven series in baseball history.

12. Charlie Keller

1939 WS	+218
1941 WS	+318
1942 WS	+71
1943 WS	-64
Total	+543

Keller simply crushed the ball in 1939, going 7 for 17 with a double, a triple, 3 homers, 6 RBI and 8 runs; that’s a slugging percentage of 1.188. The last of those three homers broke a scoreless seventh-inning tie in Game 4, which ended up being a 7-4 Yankee victory in 10 innings (yes, that’s 11 runs in 4 innings after none were scored in the first 6).

The big one for Keller, however, is 1941, and particularly Game 4 of that series. Keller singled to drive in the game’s initial run in the top of the first, doubled to lead off the fourth (he was later forced at home, but the Yanks would score two runs behind him), and contributed a single to an unsuccessful rally in the fifth. The Dodgers rallied, with a Jimmy Wasdell double and a Pete Reiser homer serving as the big blows in taking a 4-3 lead that reliever Hugh Casey preserved into the ninth.

Casey recorded the first two outs of the final inning on grounders, and then struck out Tommy Henrich. That would have ended the game, except that catcher Mickey Owen famously failed to secure strike 3, allowing Henrich to reach first. Joe DiMaggio singled, and Keller followed with a go-ahead 2-run double; a walk and another double made it a 7-4 game and gave the Yankees what proved to be an insurmountable Series lead of 3-1.

Keller’s WPA for the game was +.829. Owen takes a great deal of grief for this game, and he deserves at least some of it, but dropping strike 3 didn’t immediately lose the game for the Dodgers. It took Keller’s double to do that.

11. Albert Pujols

2001 NLDS	-45
2002 NLDS	+12
2002 NLCS	-75
2004 NLDS	+50
2004 NLCS	+224
2004 WS	-17
2005 NLDS	+13
2005 NLCS	+85
2006 NLDS	+14
2006 NLCS	+59
2006 WS	+83
2009 NLDS	+6
2011 NLDS	-4
2011 NLCS	+96
2011 WS	+58
Total	+561

That chart contains a whole lot of very, very good series (6 of them between .05 and .10 CPA), which add up to be about the same as a couple of great ones. The best effort came in the ’04 NLCS, in which Pujols showed off an excellent Molitor impersonation, batting .500 and slugging 1.000 (14 for 28, 2 doubles, 4 homers, 9 RBI, 10 runs in 7 games). Albert also hit the oft-replayed nearly-over-the-train-tracks homer off of Brad Lidge in Game 5 of the ’05 NLCS, and hit 3 homers in a game in the 2011 World Series (which would be enough to make you the MVP in some Series; the 2011 Fall Classic was great enough to make a 3-homer game into an afterthought).

Really, he’s simply been Albert Pujols in the playoffs, with a career line of .330/.439/.607 that’s virtually indistinguishable from his performance in any of half a dozen regular seasons. (In 2005, for instance, it was an eerily similar .330/.430/.609.)

10. Yogi Berra

1947 WS	-28
1949 WS	-94
1950 WS	-54
1951 WS	+48
1952 WS	-67
1953 WS	+59
1955 WS	-95
1956 WS	+338
1957 WS	+147
1958 WS	-58
1960 WS	+295
1961 WS	+110
1962 WS	-13
1963 WS	-9
Total	+580

Berra played in 14 World Series over a 17-year span; he is the all-time leader in games, at bats, hits, and doubles (tied) in World Series play, and is a very close second in runs and RBI. It’s a good thing for him that the Yankees gave him plenty of chances, because you can see from the chart that he didn’t take great advantage of his first few; through 1952, his Series batting line was .188/.248/.327.

He turned things around rather decisively at that point, however; from ’53 to ’61 (his last Series as a regular), Berra hit .335/.425/.542, with 31 RBI and 29 runs in 45 games. Moments of particular note in this stretch include homers in the first and third innings of Game 7 of the ’56 Series that put the Yankees firmly in the lead, a third-inning 2-run homer in Game 6 of the ’57 Series that helped New York force a seventh contest, and a go-ahead 3-run homer in the sixth inning of Game 7 of the ’60 Series, which is the kind of hit that would be significantly more famous if it had come in a different game.

But we’ll get to that later. For now, it’s enough to note that the Yankees gave Yogi enough shots in the Series to allow his excellent baseball abilities to shine through eventually, and that puts him just inside the top 10.

9. Dwight Evans

1975 ALCS	-16
1975 WS	+188
1986 ALCS	+7
1986 WS	+428
1988 ALCS	-12
1990 ALCS	-10
Total	+584

I will confess to having been rather surprised to find Evans, who spent his entire meaningful career playing for the title-drought Red Sox, this high on the list. His raw batting line is nothing fancy (.239/.333/.425), although it did improve to an excellent .300/.397/.580 in World Series play. But he has three big games that put him up here.

Naturally, since he did play for the title-drought Red Sox, all three of those games were losses.

First came Game 3 of the 1975 World Series, which is known primarily for Ed Armbrister’s infamous uncalled interference with Carlton Fisk that set up the winning run in the bottom of the tenth. That took the attention away from the events of the top of the ninth – namely, Dwight Evans’s game-tying 2-run homer.

This was Evans’s only big moment as a hitter in ’75, although he also made an exceptional defensive play in the tenth inning of Game 6, robbing Joe Morgan of what would have been at least a go-ahead extra-base hit and turning it into a double play. Without that catch, Fisk never gets the chance to hit his famous foul pole homer two innings later. CPA is a batting metric only, so Evans’s score is as high as it is even though it fails to account for his defensive efforts. (I believe Tris Speaker, at least, had a similarly notable defensive play in one of his Series appearances, but I’ve been unable to locate the specifics after a cursory search.)

Dwight’s next spotlight effort was Game 6 of the 1986 Series. Evans opened the scoring with an RBI double in the first, giving the Sox a lead that they would relinquish. In the seventh, Evans added an RBI groundout, putting Boston in front 3-2. That lead would be blown in the eighth. It is safe to say that neither of these were the blown leads that haunted the nightmares of Sox fans for years afterward, but they were still leads.

Evans’s final (and largest) hurrah came two days later in Game 7. He led off the second with a homer to give the Sox a 1-0 lead that ballooned to 3-0 later in the inning. That score remained intact until the sixth, when the Mets rallied to tie; New York would tack on three more runs in the seventh to put Boston down 6-3. The first two Red Sox reached in the top of the eighth, bringing Evans to the plate; he doubled both runners in, putting himself in scoring position as the tying run with nobody out. Naturally, the subsequent Boston hitters failed to score him, and the Mets restored their three-run lead in the bottom of the eighth and clinched the title an inning later.

Dewey certainly had his share of big hits in big games, and his placement on the list makes more sense than you might expect. On the other hand, his main role in the postseason narrative was as the guy who set Red Sox fans up to have their hearts broken more dramatically than they otherwise would have been; I’m not sure if those fans are necessarily grateful for that.

8. Reggie Jackson

1971 ALCS	+14
1972 ALCS	+57
1973 ALCS	-89
1973 WS	+145
1974 ALCS	+35
1975 WS	+120
1975 ALCS	+34
1977 ALCS	+1
1977 WS	+267
1978 ALCS	+65
1978 WS	+66
1980 ALCS	+3
1981 ALDS	+47
1981 ALCS	-3
1981 WS	-12
1982 ALCS	-77
1986 ALCS	-56
Total	+617

Overall postseason line: .278/.358/.527

Line in 11 ALCS appearances: .227/.298/.380

Line in 5 World Series appearances: .357/.457/.755

Perhaps “Mr. Late October” would have been a better nickname. But occasional LCS troubles notwithstanding, Jackson was tremendous in the postseason, and played better the further you went into it. His best game was the famed 3-homer effort in Game 6 of the ’77 Series. He also drove in two runs and scored one in a 3-1 A’s win in Game 6 of the ’73 Series, drove in tying or go-ahead runs on three separate plays to help the Yanks overcome George Brett’s 3 homers in Game 3 of the ’78 ALCS, and had a number of other relatively big moments on top of those, which is what happens when you hit 18 homers, drive in 48, and score 41 in 77 games.

Reggie would be in an approximate tie for third on this list if his postseason career had ended when he left the Yankees; he actually grades out as the worst postseason hitter in Angels history based on his dreadful ALCS showings in ’82 and ’86. But he’s also the #4 hitter in the distinguished playoff annals of the A’s, and #6 in the even-more-distinguished annals of the Yankees, and that's easily enough to earn him this spot.

7. David Ortiz

2002 ALDS	-14
2002 ALCS	-22
2003 ALDS	+5
2003 ALCS	+106
2004 ALDS	+58
2004 ALCS	+147
2004 WS	+65
2005 ALDS	-8
2007 ALDS	+35
2007 ALCS	-42
2007 WS	+11
2008 ALDS	+1
2008 ALCS	-47
2009 ALDS	-18
2013 ALDS	+27
2013 ALCS	-11
2013 WS	+345
Total	+637

I don’t expect that anyone needs Ortiz’s performance in the 2013 World Series explained to them less than 3 months after it happened, but just in case: 11 for 16, 2 doubles, 2 homers, 6 RBI, 7 runs, 8 walks (4 intentional). His performance in the 2004 and 2007 Series wins was also excellent (his World Series slugging percentage to date is .795; on-base percentage, .576); it gets less CPA credit because the Sox won both of those Series easily, so Ortiz’s efforts were less decisive than they were last season.

The other natural question is the matter of the 2004 ALCS. Ortiz’s CPA score in that series is very, very good, but it doesn’t quite live up to the reputation of his performance in that contest – in particular, his 7 combined RBI in Games 4 and 5, which are two of the best postseason games ever played.

Ortiz racked up WPA quite nicely in those games; he recorded a +.234 in Game 4, and a remarkable +.411 in Game 5. But since the Sox trailed 3-0 and 3-1 in the series when those games were played, CPA puts less weight on them than it would if the series had been closer at the time. There have been any number of outstanding performances by players whose teams trailed best-of-7 series 3-0 and 3-1, and most of the time, those teams have still lost the series; CPA does not assign Ortiz extra credit because his was the one team that completed the comeback. In Game 7, on the other hand, Ortiz hit a 2-out, 2-run homer in the first inning that gave the Sox a lead they would never come close to relinquishing; that was worth +.170 WPA, and Game 7 gets the most weight in any series, which evens things out somewhat for Ortiz.

No matter how you slice it, Big Papi’s body of postseason work is a fine one. I do not mean to denigrate his October accomplishments in any way by listing him behind our next player; the numbers simply are what they are (at least until next time Ortiz makes the playoffs, at which point they will once again be subject to change).

6. Hal Smith

1960 WS	+655
Total	+655

Readers who know their World Series history backward and forward may be wearing rather smug grins right now. If that doesn’t describe you, don’t worry; this guy is a little on the obscure side.

Hal Smith is probably the worst baseball player on this list; looking further down in my database, there are maybe two or three guys he can compare to who are ranked in the top 50. He was a semi-regular catcher in the late ‘50s and early ‘60s, catching over 100 games in his first three years (’55-’57) and then never again. He hit well enough to be a catcher and not much better most of the time. His relatively undistinguished profile was further reduced by the fact that he was not the only catcher named Hal Smith for most of his career – and the other one, Hal R. Smith, made the All-Star team twice despite not being a noticeably better player than our man Hal W. Smith.

In 1960, Smith joined the Pirates, who had Smoky Burgess behind the plate. Burgess was a left-handed hitter, while Smith (like most catchers) batted righty. The Pirates thus used a fairly strict platoon arrangement – Burgess almost never saw a lefty (48 PA all year out of 376 total), while over half of Smith’s at bats came against southpaws. Smith flourished, lighting up the lefties to the tune of .315/.375/.562, which buoyed his overall line to .295/.351/.508, easily the best of his career.

The catching platoon (along with league MVP Dick Groat and the blossoming young Roberto Clemente) helped carry the Pirates to the NL pennant by 7 games. In the World Series, they faced the Yankees, who had a predominantly right-handed pitching staff. Smith therefore played only when lefty ace Whitey Ford was on the mound.

Ford started Game 3; Smith went 0 for 3 and hit into a double play, which made very little difference as the Yankees won 10-0. Ford started Game 6; Smith went 2 for 4 and hit into another double play. The Yankees increased their margin to 12-0 this time despite Smith’s improved production.

The next day, the Pirates and Yankees combined to produce one of the best games in the history of baseball. The Pirates started it off by hitting Bob Turley around (Burgess chased him from the game with a second-inning single) and took a 4-0 lead early. The Yankees rallied to go ahead 5-4 on Yogi Berra’s sixth-inning homer, which was mentioned earlier. Burgess led off the bottom of the seventh with a single and was pulled for pinch runner Joe Christopher, who was then erased on a double play; Smith took Burgess’s place behind the plate in the top of the next inning and watched New York stretched its advantage to 7-4. The Pirates looked to be dead in the water.

But in the bottom of the eighth, with the help of a bad-hop grounder, they rallied. Three consecutive singles (the middle of which bounced up and hit Yankee shortstop Tony Kubek in the throat, necessitating his removal from the game) scored one run, and two outs later, Clemente singled in another.

That brought Smith to the plate with two runners on. On a 2-2 pitch from Yankee right-hander Jim Coates, the journeyman catcher hammered a fly ball over the left field fence for a go-ahead home run in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 7 of the World Series. That home run increased Pittsburgh’s chances of victory by 63.6% (or thereabouts), and thus entirely explains Smith’s position here.

As you likely know, the Yankees rallied one more time (of course they did), tying the game in the ninth when Mickey Mantle first singled in a run, then pulled off an unusual baserunning maneuver (which will be described more fully later) to avert a potential game-ending double play and let the tying tally come in. Bill Mazeroski then led off the ninth with the home run that always gets shown in replays from this game, winning the title for the Pirates.

People have an unfortunate tendency to only remember one major event from an exceptional baseball game, and in Game 7 of the 1960 Series, the thing that they remember is the first-ever Series-ending home run. The exceptional game that preceded it (including Berra’s homer, Smith’s homer, and Mantle’s moment of baserunning genius) is often passed over. Mazeroski’s home run is of course a tremendous moment in its own right. But it also came with the score tied; the Pirates were not in immediate danger of losing when he came to the plate. Smith’s blast brought them back from behind, and that’s why CPA sees it as having a bigger impact – one large enough to merit this spot on the list.

5. Lou Gehrig

1926 WS	+86
1927 WS	+91
1928 WS	+233
1932 WS	+200
1936 WS	+19
1937 WS	+25
1938 WS	+14
Total	+668

Now HERE’s a name that you’d expect to see included among the best playoff hitters ever. In fact, a glance at his raw numbers might make you wonder why he isn’t higher: .361/.477/.731, 10 homers, 35 RBI, 30 runs in 34 games.

Gehrig’s basic problem (if it can be called that) is that his teams were TOO good. Four of the seven Series he played in were sweeps. Yes, he slugged .769 in the 1927 Series, but the Yankees dominated that one anyway, and Gehrig went 0 for 5 in one of the two games the Pirates managed to keep close. In the two contests that lasted 6 or 7 games, Gehrig was merely excellent (.348/.464/.435 in 1926, .292/.393/.583 in 1936) rather than world-consuming (.529/.600/1.118 in 1932, .545/.706/1.727 (!!!) in 1928). So his performances, while exemplary, were not as essential to his teams’ success as those of some of the hitters ahead of him on the list.

(As proof of that, when Gehrig succumbed to ALS in 1939, the Yankees replaced him at first base with Babe Dahlgren, who was quite bad. Then won 106 games and swept the World Series. Why they didn’t play one of their four excellent outfielders – DiMaggio, Keller, Henrich, and Selkirk – at first base, I don’t really know, but it doesn’t seem to have hindered them too badly.)

Gehrig was an extraordinary hitter who hit even more extraordinarily in World Series play. It would have been especially fun to see what he could have done if anyone the Yankees faced after 1926 presented the team with an actual challenge.

4. David Freese

2011 NLDS	+16
2011 NLCS	+140
2011 WS	+631
2012 NLWC	+7
2012 NLDS	+31
2012 NLCS	+38
2013 NLDS	+24
2013 NLCS	-47
2013 WS	-97

Before the 2013 postseason, Freese was in the top spot on this list. His 2011 alone put him at #2. In case anyone needs a refresher:

The Cardinal third baseman started out that October going 5 for 18 with 2 doubles, a homer, and 5 RBI in the Division Series. That proved to be a mere tune-up for the LCS, in which he went 12 for 22 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, 9 RBI, and 7 runs in 6 games, slugging 1.091 and veritably clinching the series with a 3-for-4, double, 3-run homer day in Game 6.

That, in turn, was just the opening act for the World Series. The numbers weren’t quite as outlandish – a mere 8 for 23, 3 doubles, a triple and a homer, 7 RBI and 4 runs in 7 games. But the timing of those hits… describing it as exemplary is probably insufficient.

In Game 1, Freese doubled in the sixth inning and scored the go-ahead (and eventual winning) run.

In Game 2, he singled in the seventh and scored the only Cardinal run of the game, giving them a lead that would be blown in the ninth.

In Game 3, he doubled in a run in the fourth to give the Cards a 2-0 lead, later scoring on an error. He added an RBI groundout and a base-loading walk, and ended his day by singling in the eighth and being lifted for a pinch runner who would go on to score. The Cardinals won by 9, and Albert Pujols hit 3 homers, so Freese was not exactly the top story. That remained true in the next two games, both Cardinal losses that combined to put them on the brink of defeat.

Then came GAME SIX. I’ll spare you the full-on recap here and just highlight Freese’s contributions.

In the fourth inning, Freese hit into a forceout; this wasn’t great, but it did advance the lead runner from second to third, setting him up to score the tying run on the next play (which he did).

In the sixth inning, Freese drew a walk to load the bases; the next hitter also walked, forcing in the tying run.

In the ninth inning, Freese came to the plate with the Cardinals one out away from losing the World Series, down by two with two runners on. He tripled to right, scoring both runners and tying the game.

In the eleventh inning, Freese led off with a walkoff homer, sending the series to a seventh game.

That adds up to a genuinely remarkable +.964 WPA, which is the highest single-game total for any hitter in postseason history. And since it came in Game 6 of the Series, it’s worth .482 CPA, which would be sufficient on its own to put Freese among the 20 best postseason hitters ever.

In Game 7, the Rangers watched Freese tie the game with a two-run double in the first (which was worth another .20 or so WPA), and effectively gave up on pitching to him. They intentionally walked him in the fifth to load the bases, which backfired when the next two plate appearances ended with a walk and a hit batter, turning a one-run margin into three. Another walk in the seventh (this one unintentional) contributed to a rally that brought home the season’s last run.

By CPA, Freese’s 2011 postseason is the best that any hitter has ever had. Unless he absolutely craters in the next half-dozen Octobers, he’ll be close to the top of this list for a while.

3. Lance Berkman

Pass.

(Couldn’t resist saying that about an Astros first baseman. In actuality, this ranking for Lance Berkman deserves such a long explanation that it should really be its own post. So… it will be.)

2. Pete Rose

1970 NLCS	-7
1970 WS	+30
1972 NLCS	+79
1972 WS	-92
1973 NLCS	+183
1975 NLCS	+55
1975 WS	+377
1976 NLCS	+47
1976 WS	-10
1980 NLCS	+110
1980 WS	-11
1981 NLDS	+21
1983 NLCS	-11
1983 WS	+15
Total	+785

Rose doesn’t necessarily leap to mind when you think about postseason heroics, but he does make some intuitive sense – he played for the Big Red Machine and the first-ever Phillies team to win a title, and he’s got the intense, Charlie Hustle reputation. His numbers, while very good, don’t leap off the page (.321/.388/.440, 22 RBI and 30 runs in 67 games), so he’s yet another case of well-timed October production.

In 1970, Rose scuffled; his best game came when the Reds already trailed 3-0 in the World Series. He helped them scrape together a Game 4 victory before Baltimore completed their win the next day.

In 1972, Rose went 9 for 20 in the NLCS, highlighted by a 3-hit outing in Game 3 – but the 3 hits produced no runs (he was stranded at second after doubling in the eighth with the team down by 1) and the Reds lost. They won the series, however, and advanced to face Oakland in the World Series. Rose had trouble in that series as well, managing only one good game out of seven – but the good one was a doozy. In Game 5, with the Reds facing elimination, Rose led off the game with a homer against Catfish Hunter, then broke a 4-4 tie with an RBI single in the top of the ninth to give the Reds the win. They would go on to lose the (excellent) series in 7.

Rose really started warming up in 1973. In Game 1 of the NLCS, Tom Seaver was pitching a gem through 7, having struck out 11 Reds and allowed 4 hits and no runs. Jack Billingham had kept Cincinnati within one, however, and that was close enough for Rose, who homered to tie the game with one out in the eighth. Johnny Bench won it with a ninth-inning solo shot. Game 4, coming after a pair of Met victories, played out nearly identically; this time, it was Tony Perez tying it at 1 with a homer in the seventh, and Rose capping a 3-for-5 day with a go-ahead homer in the top of the twelfth. Rose added two more hits, a walk, and a run in Game 5, but the Mets won 7-2 and captured the pennant.

After an excellent Dodger team kept the 98-win Reds out of the playoffs in 1974, they returned with a vengeance in ’75. They swept the Pirates in the NLCS, with Rose hitting a go-ahead 2-run homer in the eighth inning of Game 3, then scoring an insurance run after singling in the tenth.

Then came the classic ’75 World Series. Rose started relatively slow (4/14 with a triple) in the first four games. In Game 5, however, he had a walk and two hits, including a game-tying RBI double in the fifth. In Game 6, he added another two hits and a run.

And in Game 7, with the Reds down 3-0, Rose was involved in all three of the rallies that composed their comeback. He singled to lead off the sixth; Bench hit into a force at second, and thus replaced Rose in front of Tony Perez’s 2-run homer that brought the team within a run. In the seventh, Rose came up with two outs and two on, and singled in the tying run. And in the ninth, with two out and a runner on third, Rose worked a walk that kept the inning alive for Joe Morgan, who singled in the run that won the Series. That adds up to .227 WPA for the game, and it’s in a Game 7. As a result, Rose was named the MVP of one of the best World Series ever played.

That covers the best of Rose’s work, although he also had 6 hits in Cincinnati’s 3-game sweep of the Phillies in the ’76 NLCS, and went 8/20 with 5 walks for the Phillies in the 1980 NLCS against the Astros, which is a real hidden gem of a playoff series. And since Rose is the #2 player on the list, the next guy must be…

1. Mickey Mantle

1951 WS	+24
1952 WS	+257
1953 WS	+143
1955 WS	-59
1956 WS	+23
1957 WS	-51
1958 WS	-43
1960 WS	+394
1961 WS	-15
1962 WS	-19
1963 WS	-50
1964 WS	+221
Total	+826

He’s the all-time leader in World Series homers, runs, and RBI, which is a respectable start. He also has a line of .257/.374/.535, which, while very good, does not necessarily scream “best ever” at a high volume. It’s certainly not much compared to Mantle’s .298/.421/.557 regular season marks, for instance, and it's far below Lou Gehrig's line.

But Mantle is sort of an exact opposite to Gehrig in the postseason – his Yankees were constantly getting into tightly-matched series. In fact, where Gehrig played in only one Game 7 in his career, Mantle played in eight. Eight! Mantle played more Game Sevens than Gehrig played World Series.

Since Game 7 gets the most weight here, that seems like a sensible place to start an examination of Mantle's work. In his eight (eight!) Game 7 appearances, Mantle went 9/30 with a double and 2 homers, drew 3 walks, scored 4 runs and drove in 7. His batting line was a healthy .300/.364/.533. More significantly (at least to CPA), Mantle’s total WPA in those games was +.376, which makes it nearly half of his total postseason production.

This production comes almost entirely from two games: Game 7 in 1952, in which Mantle broke a sixth-inning tie with a solo homer against Joe Black, then singled in an insurance run in the seventh (+.267 WPA), and the previously-discussed Game 7 in 1960, in which Mantle had 3 hits, including an RBI single in front of Berra’s go-ahead homer in the sixth and an RBI single that moved the tying run to third with one out in the top of the ninth (+.312 WPA). That run eventually scored when Mantle, standing on first, stayed in place as Berra grounded to Pirate first baseman Rocky Nelson; Nelson stepped on the bag first instead of throwing to second for the force. Since Berra was already out, the force at second was removed, and Mantle dived back to first ahead of Nelson’s tag, allowing the tying run to score. This play is not credited to him by WPA, but it saved the Yankees’ season, albeit very briefly.

Other noteworthy performances: In Game 3 of the ’64 Series, Mantle had a double and a walk in the early going, then hit a walkoff homer in the ninth. He had a tiebreaking 2-run shot in the eighth inning of 1952’s second game, and a game-breaking grand slam in 1953’s Game 5. When you’re Mickey Mantle and you play in 65 games of any kind, you’re going to put together some highlights. You’ll also assemble some impressive series-long stat lines, like the .400/.545/.800, 3 homers and 11 RBI in 1960, or the .333/.467/.792, 3 homers and 8 RBI in ’64.

In other words, you’ll be Mickey Mantle. And if you’re on a team good enough to give you 12 cracks at the World Series, being Mickey Mantle might just be good enough to make you the most effective postseason hitter in baseball history.