In the post that completed the introduction of my ranking
method for tennis players, I used Stanislas Wawrinka’s 2011 season as the
example for the calculations. I did this for three reasons. First, he’s in the news
these days, having just won the 2014 Australian Open. Second, he’s currently my
favorite player, a position he worked himself into over the course of last
season (a fact which made the aforementioned Australian Open gloriously enjoyable).
And third, he comes in 21st in my 2011 rankings,
thereby making him a natural jumping off point for the top 20 players of the
year. If you’ll recall, the rankings are presented as the base 10 logarithm of
the ratio between the odds of the player in question out-performing the #75
player in the world against the actual draw faced by the player in question,
and the odds of the #75 player in the world exceeding the player in question.
Wawrinka’s score was 5.0, meaning that this ratio in his case was roughly
100,000 to 1.
Before we get started, a note on the information presented alongside the rankings: Match, set, and
service game records are taken from my own database, and may differ from those
reported on the ATP website in some cases. I’m including wins and losses in Challenger events, which the ATP doesn't (not that top-20 players
generally participate in many of those anyway), and I'm also ignoring what are called dead
rubbers in Davis Cup play (matches played after the best-of-five team matchup
is already clinched), which the ATP counts.
On to the good stuff (or at least the good stuff precursor) - the second 10 of the 2011 rankings.
Number 20: Feliciano Lopez, Spain (5.0)
Match record 41-26; Set record 98-74; Service game record
920-879 (.511). ATP rank: 20.
Draw: Lopez faced a tougher set of opponents than any player
ranked below him, which was also tougher than those of several players ranked above – the
#75 player in the world would be expected to win 46.1% of service games against
Lopez’s opponents, giving him the world’s thirteenth-most challenging slate. 17
of his 67 counted matches were against players ranked in the ATP’s top 10 when
the match occurred.
Troubles: Lopez did not win a World Tour title in 2011. More
damaging still, he lost in the first or second round of 17 events. Many of
those were high-level events with the defeats coming at the hands of
outstanding players – but not all of them. Four of his losses were against
players ranked outside the top 100 at the time of the match. (To be fair, one
of these defeats was by Juan Martin del Potro, an excellent player whose
ranking was crushed in 2010 by a wrist injury; he beat Lopez right at the
beginning of his comeback.)
Highlights: Lopez won four of the aforementioned 17 matches
against top-10 opposition. He made the final in Belgrade, losing to Novak
Djokovic (understandably). He also made the semifinals in the Shanghai Masters
event, beating Janko Tipsarevic and Tomas Berdych before losing to David
Ferrer, and the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, beating Andy Roddick before bowing
out against Andy Murray. He played a Challenger event in Bogota and dominated
it, losing only one set on his way to the title. Finally, he played a small
role in Spain’s triumph in the Davis Cup, winning a singles match against Mardy
Fish in their quarterfinal faceoff against the US before handing the singles
reins back to the Nadal-Ferrer heavyweight duo in the next two rounds.
In all, Lopez put together a fine season that might have
drawn a good deal more attention if he weren’t from Spain, which has produced
so many good players in the last decade-plus that a mere 20th-best-in-the-world
year isn’t going to stick out.
Number 19: Gael Monfils, France (5.3)
Match record 38-16; Set record 93-52; Service game record
778-680 (.534). ATP rank: 16.
Draw: Monfils faced the easiest set of opponents of any
player in my top 20 for the year; #75 is projected to win 47.6% of service
games against Monfils’s foes (For the sake of brevity, let’s call this W%75).
Only five of his 54 matches came against top-10 competition – not a small
number, to be sure, but not much compared to Lopez’s 17. That fact goes some
distance in explaining his superior raw numbers.
Troubles: Monfils absorbed a few early losses, though not
many. He also withdrew from one match, gave a walkover in another, and
participated in only 18 events – not a small total, but not terribly large for
a player at his level. Finally, he had an odd tendency to lose in the
quarterfinals in 2011 – he made it to the last eight but not the last four on
six separate occasions. (Quarterfinals are generally good results, of course;
it’s just that semifinals are better.)
Highlights: Monfils took home his fourth career title in
Stockholm, and also made the final in Washington. He also made some good
showings on larger stages, with quarterfinal appearances in two Masters events
(Canada and Cincinnati) and the French Open.
Monfils may not have faced the most formidable set of foes
in 2011, but winning over 70% of your matches on the ATP World Tour is nothing
to be ashamed of regardless of who’s on the other side of the net.
Number 18: John Isner, USA (5.9)
Match record 34-20; Set record 92-59; Service game record
853-778 (.523). ATP rank: 18.
Draw: W%75 of .464; Isner’s opponents match his ranking,
coming in as the 18th-hardest schedule in the world.
Troubles: Isner lost seven first-round matches in 2011. Yes,
one was to Rafael Nadal at the French Open, but that still leaves six. His
enormous serve can keep him in matches against anyone, but his tendency to
conserve his energy when his opponents are serving can also give chances to players who
shouldn’t be seriously competing with him.
Highlights: Remember how he can stay in matches with anyone?
Isner won two titles in 2011, at Newport and Winston-Salem, and made a final in
Atlanta. He also made the semifinals at the Paris Masters event and the
quarters at the US Open. His first-round loss to Nadal at Roland Garros lasted
five sets, making it one of Nadal’s biggest challenges to date at his favorite
Slam.
Between the occasional deep runs at important events and the
too-frequent early upsets, this was a very John Isner season. It’s the kind of
year that puts you around the top 20, but not usually much higher.
Number 17: Nicolas Almagro, Spain (6.0)
Match record 47-23; Set record 111-65; Service game record
942-840 (.529). ATP rank: 10.
Draw: .472 W%75, the second-easiest slate in the top 20.
Eight of his 70 matches were against top-10 players, with only one coming
against the Big Four.
Troubles: Almagro lost in the first round of two of the four
Grand Slams, including the one played on his beloved clay courts. He also
played all nine Masters events and only made it as far as the quarterfinals in
one of them. (At this level in the rankings, "trouble" sometimes starts to become a
relative term.) Finally, he lost twice to David Ferrer, continuing his
career-long winless streak against his countryman.
Highlights: Three titles, at Costa Do Sauipe, Buenos Aires,
and Nice, and finals in Acapulco and Hamburg. Not coincidentally, all of these
tournaments were played on clay. Almagro’s one quarterfinal in a Masters did
come on a hard court (in Canada), and he also made the fourth round of the
Australian Open.
Almagro had the kind of workmanlike year that gets ignored
by people who focus exclusively on the Slams – he played well throughout the
season, but didn’t make extremely deep runs in the events that get the most
attention. Given that, like Lopez, he’s from Spain, and has never won a match
against either of the top two active players from his home country, flying
under the radar is not a new experience for him.
Number 16: Fernando Verdasco, Spain (6.5)
Match record 35-24; Set record 87-66; Service game record
781-708 (.525). ATP rank: 24.
Draw: .460 W%75, 11th-hardest in the world. 20 of
59 matches against the top 30, with several more against players just outside.
Troubles: Twelve of Verdasco’s 24 losses came in the first
or second round. Some of these were against opponents already known to be
formidable (David Ferrer, Robin Soderling) or whose formidability would later
become apparent (Milos Raonic), but not all of them. In particular, Verdasco
only won multiple matches at one of the nine Masters events. He also did not
win a title for the first time since 2007.
Highlights: Despite going title-free, Verdasco did make
three finals, in San Jose, Estoril, and Gstaad. He lost all three to players
ranked outside the top 40, but two of those players (Raonic and del Potro) were
ranked much lower at the time of the matches than their level of play deserved. Verdasco also
made the fourth round in the Australian Open, and had an easy win in his one
live Davis Cup singles match.
Verdasco’s ATP ranking fell from 9 to 24 over the course of
this season, so it’s not one you’d expect him to list highly among his career
achievements. But he still played some very fine tennis, which was largely hidden by an unfortunate habit of running into players whose ranking was not reflective of
their capabilities.
Number 15: Andy Roddick, USA (7.9)
Match record 34-16; Set record 82-48; Service game record
687-583 (.541). ATP rank: 14.
Draw: .463 W%75, basically commensurate with his overall
placement. Eight matches against top-10 players, including a total of four against
Federer, Nadal, and Murray.
Troubles: Roddick lost his first match in an event five
times, and only made it to four semifinals for the year, which is respectable
but not the level people tended to hope for from him. He was also starting to
curtail his schedule – he played the second-fewest service games of any player
in this top 20, and missed the French Open.
Highlights: Won a title in Memphis, making 2011 the eleventh
consecutive year in which he won at least one. Made the final in Brisbane,
losing to Robin Soderling (which is understandable). Made a quarterfinal run at
the US Open, beating David Ferrer along the way before losing to Nadal.
Roddick spent roughly eight years ranked in the ATP’s top
10, with only a couple of brief periods outside of that group. In 2011, he fell
out of the top 10 permanently, partly because he played less than the top
players and partly because age was catching up to him even when he was on the
court. But he was still a fine player capable of exemplary tennis from time to
time.
Number 14: Gilles Simon, France (8.0)
Match record 39-27; Set record 105-76; Service game record
923-822 (.529). ATP rank: 12.
Draw: .462 W%75, 15th-toughest on tour. Eleven
matches against top-10 players, which is a substantial number.
Troubles: Simon lost his first match in an event nine times,
and failed to advance past the fourth round of any of the Slams.
Highlights: The Frenchman won two titles, in Sydney and
Hamburg. The first came without losing a set, and the second featured three
consecutive wins against top-20 players. Simon also made the quarterfinals at
the Cincinnati Masters event, including a win over David Ferrer, and appeared
in fourth rounds at the French and US Opens, scoring wins over Mardy Fish and
Juan Martin del Potro, respectively.
Simon had a year very comparable to Almagro’s, winning
multiple titles without drawing much notice, partly because he was overshadowed
by his own countrymen. It was capable, steady, unspectacular work, and it was
done well enough to end up pretty high in the rankings.
Number 13: Marin Cilic, Croatia (9.2)
Match record 42-22; Set record 97-63; Service game record
838-720 (.538). ATP rank: 21.
Draw: .461 W%75, right in the same range as Simon and
Roddick. Ten top-10 matches.
Troubles: First round losses at the French Open and
Wimbledon don’t help Cilic’s standing, nor do fairly early exits at all the
Masters events but one.
Highlights: Cilic won the title at St. Petersburg, and made
finals in Marseille, Umag, and Beijing. He also made the fourth round at the
Australian Open and the quarterfinals at the Rome Masters, losing to Rafael
Nadal both times.
Cilic falls into the same category as most of the players
around him in the rankings, playing creditably in the standard events while not
making deep runs in the big ones. His draw grades as slightly tougher than
Simon’s, and his raw results are slightly better, and that’s why he’s ahead by
a respectable margin.
Number 12: Richard Gasquet, France (9.4)
Match record 34-19; Set record 81-52; Service game record
693-592 (.539). ATP rank: 19.
Draw: .453 W%75, ninth-toughest in the world and easily the
hardest so far. 16 of his 53 matches were against top-10 competition, which is
just over 30%.
Troubles: The middle rounds of the Slams have been a
frequent issue for Gasquet, and he once again did not make it out of a fourth
round in 2011. Admittedly, his losses in the first three were to Berdych,
Djokovic, and Murray, and it’s hard to fault him for any of those. He also did
not so much as appear in a final in any event all year, which makes you wonder
what he’s doing this high.
Highlights: The Masters events, mostly. Gasquet went through
a pair of top-10 players (Melzer and Roddick) to make the Indian Wells
quarterfinal, where he lost to Djokovic. He defeated Federer and Berdych en
route to the Rome semis, where Nadal bested him. He also made the round of 16
in four other Masters events this year.
On the surface, 2011 looks like a down year for Gasquet, who
made 3 finals each year in 2010, 2012, and 2013. Looking closer, however, it
seems that he just picked the wrong weeks to play his best tennis – had he put
up his Indian Wells or Rome performances in smaller tournaments, he’d likely
have taken home a pair of trophies. As it was, he absorbed losses to two
historic figures that made his year look worse than it actually was.
Number 11: Robin Soderling, Sweden (12.6)
Match record 35-9; Set record 82-32; Service game record
625-473 (.569). ATP rank: 13.
Draw: .460 W%75, twelfth-hardest in the world. Eight top-10 matches
out of 44.
Troubles: Soderling did not play a match after July, and
indeed has not played since then while suffering from what has to be just about
the longest-lasting case of mononucleosis in recorded history. As a result, he played the fewest service games of anyone in my top 30. Also, his showings in
the big tournaments he played were very strong, but not necessarily at his
previously established level – a quarterfinal at the French Open, quarters in
Madrid and Rome, and nothing else beyond the round of 16 in the biggest events.
Highlights: Soderling won four titles in half a season,
taking Brisbane (over Roddick in the final), Rotterdam (over Tsonga), Marseille
(over Cilic), and Bsstad (over Ferrer). The last of those wins was especially
impressive, as Soderling beat Berdych in the semis and Ferrer in the final
while dropping a combined total of five service games in the two matches.
Outside of the four titles, the aforementioned quarterfinals at the French,
Madrid, and Rome, along with a fourth-round showing at the Australian Open,
would also qualify as highlights for most people.
Note the significant jump from Gasquet's score to Soderling's. The Swede was among the best in the world when he was able
to play. It’s unfortunate that his ability to play did not last, forcing him
from the game (apparently permanently) at age 26.
Up next, it's the main event: the 10 best players of 2011.
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