In 2004, that changed very abruptly, as Roger Federer embarked on an extraordinarily long stretch of unprecedented dominance. Federer would hold the #1 ranking for over four and a half years in a row. Moreover, a year later, the #2 position was anchored down just as firmly by Rafael Nadal, who held it for three years before finally passing Federer in summer 2008. The two men would exchange #1 again in 2009, and once more in 2010. At the end of the 2010 season, they had held the highest ranking between them for almost seven years in a row, and had combined to win 21 of the last 23 Grand Slam titles.
That level of dominance continued in 2011 - it just wasn't continued by Federer or Nadal. Instead, Novak Djokovic stormed through the calendar, winning 7 titles and amassing 13 wins over top-10 opponents (including multiple victories against Federer, Nadal, and Andy Murray) before absorbing his first loss of the year in the French Open semifinals. He recovered nicely from that setback, going on to win both Wimbledon and the US Open and ending the year with a stunning record of 70-6, including a 12-2 combined mark against Nadal, Federer, and Murray.
The season didn't exactly come out of nowhere; Djokovic had been a top-5 mainstay since 2007. But by the standards of the preceding several years, it was a colossal shakeup in the status quo.
Let's see how the Melog ratings feel about it.
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Melog
|
ATP Rank
|
ATP Pts
|
|
1
|
Novak Djokovic
|
89.2
|
1
|
13630
|
|
2
|
Rafael Nadal
|
73.2
|
2
|
9595
|
|
3
|
Roger Federer
|
64.0
|
3
|
8170
|
|
4
|
David Ferrer
|
47.6
|
5
|
4925
|
|
5
|
Andy Murray
|
45.8
|
4
|
7380
|
|
6
|
Tomas Berdych
|
32.8
|
7
|
3700
|
|
7
|
Juan Martin Del Potro
|
32.0
|
11
|
2315
|
|
8
|
Jo Wilfried Tsonga
|
28.8
|
6
|
4335
|
|
9
|
Mardy Fish
|
25.8
|
8
|
2965
|
|
10
|
Janko Tipsarevic
|
25.1
|
9
|
2595
|
|
11
|
Robin Soderling
|
20.8
|
13
|
2120
|
|
12
|
Marin Cilic
|
18.8
|
21
|
1665
|
|
13
|
Richard Gasquet
|
17.0
|
19
|
1765
|
|
14
|
Gilles Simon
|
16.2
|
12
|
2165
|
|
15
|
Andy Roddick
|
14.7
|
14
|
1940
|
|
16
|
Nicolas Almagro
|
13.6
|
10
|
2380
|
|
17
|
Fernando Verdasco
|
13.5
|
24
|
1550
|
|
18
|
John Isner
|
12.8
|
18
|
1800
|
|
19
|
Kevin Anderson
|
12.5
|
32
|
1235
|
|
20
|
Feliciano Lopez
|
12.1
|
20
|
1755
|
|
21
|
Gael Monfils
|
11.7
|
16
|
1910
|
|
22
|
Stanislas Wawrinka
|
11.4
|
17
|
1820
|
|
23
|
Florian Mayer
|
10.8
|
23
|
1630
|
|
24
|
Alexandr Dolgopolov
|
10.2
|
15
|
1925
|
|
25
|
Viktor Troicki
|
9.6
|
22
|
1655
|
|
26
|
Radek Stepanek
|
9.2
|
28
|
1275
|
|
27
|
Ivan Ljubicic
|
8.8
|
30
|
1270
|
|
28
|
Juan Monaco
|
8.8
|
26
|
1335
|
|
29
|
Mikhail Youzhny
|
8.5
|
35
|
1105
|
|
30
|
Kei Nishikori
|
8.0
|
25
|
1430
|
|
31
|
Milos Raonic
|
7.9
|
31
|
1255
|
|
32
|
Carlos Berlocq
|
7.5
|
60
|
801
|
|
33
|
Marcos Baghdatis
|
7.4
|
44
|
940
|
|
34
|
Nikolay Davydenko
|
7.1
|
41
|
980
|
|
35
|
Xavier Malisse
|
6.8
|
49
|
910
|
|
36
|
Philipp Kohlschreiber
|
6.6
|
43
|
960
|
|
37
|
David Nalbandian
|
6.2
|
64
|
760
|
|
38
|
Andreas Seppi
|
6.1
|
38
|
1015
|
|
39
|
James Blake
|
6.0
|
59
|
819
|
|
40
|
Marcel Granollers
|
5.7
|
27
|
1335
|
|
41
|
Julien Benneteau
|
5.6
|
52
|
900
|
|
42
|
Juan Ignacio Chela
|
5.5
|
29
|
1270
|
|
43
|
Jurgen Melzer
|
5.4
|
33
|
1170
|
|
44
|
Santiago Giraldo
|
5.4
|
55
|
890
|
|
45
|
Robin Haase
|
5.4
|
45
|
926
|
|
46
|
Philipp Petzschner
|
5.0
|
63
|
780
|
|
47
|
Michael Llodra
|
5.0
|
47
|
915
|
|
48
|
Ivo Karlovic
|
4.9
|
56
|
867
|
|
49
|
Alex Bogomolov Jr
|
4.8
|
34
|
1135
|
|
50
|
Tommy Robredo
|
4.8
|
51
|
905
|
|
51
|
Juan Carlos Ferrero
|
4.7
|
50
|
910
|
|
52
|
Dmitry Tursunov
|
4.4
|
40
|
988
|
|
53
|
Thomaz Bellucci
|
4.1
|
37
|
1060
|
|
54
|
Jarkko Nieminen
|
3.7
|
77
|
666
|
|
55
|
Ivan Dodig
|
3.7
|
36
|
1065
|
|
56
|
Bernard Tomic
|
3.6
|
42
|
970
|
|
57
|
Donald Young
|
3.4
|
39
|
1004
|
|
58
|
Albert Ramos
|
3.2
|
66
|
709
|
|
59
|
Pablo Cuevas
|
3.0
|
142
|
370
|
|
60
|
Sam Querrey
|
2.9
|
93
|
589
|
|
61
|
Grigor Dimitrov
|
2.8
|
76
|
666
|
|
62
|
Lleyton Hewitt
|
2.8
|
186
|
265
|
|
63
|
Albert Montanes
|
2.7
|
53
|
895
|
|
64
|
Potito Starace
|
2.6
|
58
|
825
|
|
65
|
Matthias Bachinger
|
2.6
|
94
|
587
|
|
66
|
Gilles Muller
|
2.6
|
54
|
893
|
|
67
|
Nicolas Mahut
|
2.5
|
80
|
653
|
|
68
|
Lukasz Kubot
|
2.5
|
57
|
828
|
|
69
|
Steve Darcis
|
2.4
|
88
|
622
|
|
70
|
Tobias Kamke
|
2.4
|
96
|
582
|
|
71
|
Rui Machado
|
2.0
|
68
|
698
|
|
72
|
Ernests Gulbis
|
2.0
|
61
|
785
|
|
73
|
Denis Istomin
|
1.9
|
73
|
685
|
|
74
|
Ricardas Berankis
|
1.8
|
125
|
460
|
|
75
|
Dudi Sela
|
1.8
|
83
|
640
|
|
77
|
Fabio Fognini
|
1.8
|
48
|
915
|
|
80
|
Sergiy Stakhovsky
|
1.6
|
62
|
780
|
|
81
|
Ryan Sweeting
|
1.6
|
72
|
690
|
|
84
|
Pablo Andujar
|
1.6
|
46
|
920
|
|
86
|
Flavio Cipolla
|
1.4
|
75
|
669
|
|
93
|
Guillermo Garcia Lopez
|
1.2
|
65
|
755
|
|
97
|
Lukas Rosol
|
1.0
|
70
|
693
|
|
99
|
Olivier Rochus
|
1.0
|
67
|
704
|
|
105
|
Igor Kunitsyn
|
0.9
|
71
|
692
|
|
114
|
Filippo Volandri
|
0.6
|
69
|
696
|
|
116
|
Alejandro Falla
|
0.5
|
74
|
671
|
Djokovic wins! I'm sure everyone is amazed. The real comparison for Novak's 2011 season will be made against other all-time great tennis seasons - including, but not limited to, some of his other performances in the last five years (and, if things keep going the way they have so far, his 2016 as well).
Further down the rankings, you see Juan Martin del Potro making a successful comeback from his first major wrist injury; the injury kept him down in the rankings for a while, which resulted in unreasonably early matchups against top players in the Slams (Djokovic in the third round of the French Open, Nadal in the fourth round at Wimbledon), which resulted in early exits from those events, which in turn kept his ranking low for a while longer. The ATP rankings are often self-reinforcing in that way, and that's why opponent-adjusted measures do a better job with situations like successful injury recoveries.
Probably more interesting, however, is the fact that Melog puts David Ferrer in the top four, slightly ahead of Andy Murray. Usually a difference of one place in the rankings is no big deal, but when it involves jumping past a player who has 50% more ATP ranking points, it probably deserves some explanation.
Let's look at the basics: In counted matches, Murray posted a record of 52-13, while Ferrer was 59-19. (The "counted matches" disclaimer is actually important in this case, because Murray played four Davis Cup Group 2 matches in 2011. Three of those matches were against players who did not hold an ATP ranking at the time of the match, which is an example of why I don't count Davis Cup Group 2 in the first place.) Murray's winning percentage in matches was 80%; Ferrer's was 75.6%. But Ferrer played 20% more counted matches, and the difference in service games played was about the same (1946-1639, Ferrer playing 19% more). Moreover, Melog looks at service games rather than matches, and Murray's advantage in winning percentage there was much smaller, 58.5% to 58.1%.
Melog agrees that Murray was the better player when on court (largely due to a tougher slate of opponents). But Ferrer's advantage in playing time means that it would have been slightly more difficult for a low-level player to duplicate all of his results.
And now, for the traditional tables of slightly larger disagreements between the ATP and Melog systems.
Melog likes:
|
Player
|
Melog
|
ATP
|
2011 Age
|
2012 ATP
|
|
Lleyton Hewitt
|
62
|
186
|
30
|
83
|
|
Pablo Cuevas
|
59
|
142
|
25
|
N/A
|
|
Carlos Berlocq
|
32
|
60
|
28
|
66
|
|
Marin Cilic
|
12
|
21
|
23
|
15
|
|
David Nalbandian
|
37
|
64
|
29
|
82
|
|
Ricardas Berankis
|
74
|
125
|
21
|
113
|
|
Kevin Anderson
|
19
|
32
|
25
|
37
|
|
Juan Martin del Potro
|
7
|
11
|
23
|
7
|
|
Sam Querrey
|
60
|
93
|
24
|
22
|
|
James Blake
|
39
|
59
|
32
|
127
|
Well that's mostly not good. Berlocq, Berankis, Nalbandian, Anderson, and Blake all held steady or declined (sometimes significantly). Hewitt and Cilic both moved up, but not as much as Melog might have expected. Del Potro improved, and Querrey improved sharply, and Cuevas missed the entire 2012 season due to the same injury that cost him the second half of 2011. (He has since returned and played well.) On the other hand, all of the players 24 and younger on this list saw their ATP rankings improve at least somewhat in 2012.
ATP likes:
|
Player
|
Melog
|
ATP
|
2011 Age
|
2012 ATP
|
|
Pablo Andujar
|
84
|
46
|
25
|
42
|
|
Filippo Volandri
|
114
|
69
|
30
|
88
|
|
Fabio Fognini
|
77
|
48
|
24
|
45
|
|
Nicolas Almagro
|
16
|
10
|
26
|
11
|
|
Alexandr Dolgopolov
|
24
|
15
|
23
|
18
|
|
Alejandro Falla
|
116
|
74
|
28
|
54
|
|
Ivan Dodig
|
55
|
36
|
26
|
72
|
And that's even worse. Out of the 7 players in this table, 4 had no meaningful change in their ATP ranking from 2011-12; another declined noticeably but not as far as Melog would have expected. One of them did move down significantly, but one moved up significantly.
At this point, it's probably time to concede that Melog, in isolation, is not a better predictor of ATP ratings going forward than the ATP ratings themselves. (Which, to be fair, isn't what it's intended for anyway.)
The next step back in time will take us to (spoiler alert) 2010, the last year of the pre-DJOKOVIC era in men's tennis. Will someone else finally be Melog's #1 player?
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